事件:海关总署公布，1月出口同比增长25%，进口增速28.8%;季调后出口与进口同比增速分别为12.4%和3.4%。

Events: announced the general administration of customs,January exports year-on-year growth of 25%,Imports 28.8%;Season after adjustment export and import year-on-year growth were 12.4% and 3.4% respectively.

　　基本结论

Basic conclusion

　　外贸数据激增受节日影响。1月出口、进口同比增速分别为25%和28.8%，较前值(12月出口14.1%、进口5.97%)均大幅提高。主要的影响因素之一为春节错位，剔除春节因素影响后，出口同比14.1%、进口同比3.4%，较前值略有回落。

Foreign trade data by the surge in holiday effect.January export/Import year-on-year growth were 25% and 28.8% respectively,The previous value(December 14.1% export/Import 5.97%)Significantly improve.One of the main influence factors for the Spring Festival dislocation,To eliminate the Spring Festival factors,Export 14.1% year-on-year/Import 3.4% year-on-year,The previous value dropped slightly.

　　出口数据维持较高增长。1月出口虽环比下滑(季调后环比-8.7%)，但14.1%的季调后同比增速仍高于去年平均水平。(1)从国别上看，对美、欧、日、东盟的出口均有所改善，其中对东盟出口回升最多( 20.8%);对日其次( 13.1%，可能存在J曲线效应)。(2)贸易方式上看，一般贸易与来料加工出口增速分别回升8.1和8.5个百分点。(3)商品类别方面，传统的劳动密集型产品(纺织品、家具、鞋类等)、高新技术产品、机电产品(集成电路等)的出口增速均有不同程度的回升。

Export data to maintain high growth.January exports decline is link(Season after adjustment link - 8.7%),But 14.1% of the season after adjustment year-on-year growth is still higher than last year the average level.(1)Look from the country,To the/the/day/Asean's exports are improved,Among the asean export picks up the most( 20.8%);On second( 13.1%,There may be J curve effect).(2)Trade on the way,General trade and processing export growth rebounded 8.1 and 8.5% respectively.(3)Product category in,The traditional labor-intensive products(textile/furniture/Footwear, etc)/High-tech products/Mechanical and electrical products(Integrated circuit, etc)Export growth are different degree of rebound.

　　进口数据表现一般。1月进口名义增速虽高达28.8%，但季调后同比仅增长3.4%，低于去年平均水平;季调后环比下滑-9.3%，表现一般。从商品类别看，支撑进口同比增速的主要为成品油、铁矿石、钢材、塑料、废铜、未锻造的铝及铝材等;大豆(较上月下滑-8.4%)、氧化铝(-35.1%)、飞机(-80.3%)的进口增速下滑较多。其中，铁矿石量稳价升、原油量价齐升。

Import data performance generally.January import nominal growth is as high as 28.8%,But the season after adjustment year-on-year growth of 3.4% only,Lower than last year the average level;Season after adjustment link down - 9.3%,Performance general.Business category don't,Support the main import year-on-year growth for petroleum products/Iron ore/steel/plastic/Copper scrap/Not forging of aluminum and aluminum, etc.;soybean(A decline to 8.4% last month)/alumina(35.1% -)/The plane(80.3% -)Import growth more down.the,Iron ore quantity stability price rises/Crude oil JiSheng volume and price.

　　出口改善受益于相对稳定的全球经济环境。1月不仅我国出口数据表现尚可，美国、欧盟、日本、韩国的出口同比增速均较去年12月有不同幅度的改善。这一现象或受益于目前相对稳定的全球经济环境。正如央行4季度货币政策执行报告指出:“虽存在诸多不确定因素，但总体看全球经济有可能继续缓慢复苏”、“美国已经历一段持续的去杠杆过程，对经济的负面拖累逐步减弱”、“欧央行的流动性支持计划也对稳定市场起到了积极作用”。

Export to improve benefit from the relative stability of the global economic environment.January is not only our export data show fair,The United States/The European Union/Japan/South Korea's exports year-on-year growth than last December have different amplitude improvement.This phenomenon or benefit from the current relatively stable global economic environment.As the central bank 4 quarter monetary policy implementation report says:"Although there are many uncertain factors,But overall look at the global economy is likely to continue a slow recovery"/"The United States has through a period of continued to lever process,The economic negative drag gradually weakened"/"European central bank liquidity support plan to stabilize the market which has played a positive role".