“跌跌跌，再这样跌下去生意都没法做了。”浙江特灵轻工公司董事长李建江盯着手机上日元最新的汇率信息，懊恼地暗自嘟囔。作为日本华人企业家协会温州商会会长，李建江在日本市场有着诸多令竞争对手羡慕不已的成熟资源，但是这一次，他坦言“很有压力”。

"Stumbling down,So again fall business any more."Zhejiang trane, light industry, chairman of the company, at the LiJianJiang to the exchange rate of the latest information,Sweat to secretly grumble.As Japan Chinese entrepreneurs association of wenzhou chamber of commerce,In the Japanese market has a lot LiJianJiang that rivals envy mature resources,But this time,He said"There is pressure on".

　　查询中国人民银行发布的人民币汇率中间价公告可以清楚地看到，自从去年12月18日日本自民党大选获胜以来，每100日元兑换人民币的数额已经从7.4834元跌至6.6836元，日元至今已累计贬值约10.69%。

Inquires the people's bank of China issued by the medium price announcement RMB exchange rate can be clearly seen,Since last December, and Japan's liberal Democratic Party since he won the election,Every 100 yen for the amount of RMB 7.4834 yuan has been dropped to 6.6836 yuan,The yen has been accumulated depreciation about 10.69%.

　　大单长单不敢接

The largest single long single can't meet

　　李建江的浙江特灵轻工有限公司是温州第一家中日合资企业，主要生产打火机等轻工产品。借助其在大阪创办的洪高贸易有限会社，如今，日本上万家便利店、超市、商场都在卖特灵打火机。

LiJianJiang of zhejiang trane, light industry co., LTD. Is the first a sino-japanese joint venture in wenzhou,The main production lighter and light industrial products.With its established in Osaka flood high trading co., LTD., club,now,Japan's convenience store notice/supermarket/Stores are selling trane, lighter.

　　去年6月，日元成为继美元后第二个可以直接与人民币交易的币种。“为了交易更便捷，我们就让很多订单用日元直接结算。”李建江没有想到，这样的便捷还没享受几个月，麻烦便接踵而来。

Last June,The yen has the second can be directly after the dollar and RMB trading currency."In order to deal more convenient,We let a lot of orders with the yen direct settlement."LiJianJiang didn't think,This convenient haven't enjoy a few months,Trouble will come.

　　众所周知，在订单价格锁定的情况下，汇率的变动会直接影响卖家的收益率。李建江给记者算了笔账，例如一个成本为7元钱的打火机，2012年12月18日那天签下的订单价格是100日元，相当于每只卖了7.48元，利润率大约6.8%。假如到今天依然以100日元的价格交易，按照现在的外汇牌价，相当于每只打火机只卖了6.68元，亏损4.6%。“我们浙商出口日本的产品大多都是小商品，利润最多也只有10%左右。这日元一大贬，把我们的利润抵消得一干二净，有的甚至要亏。”

As is known to all,In the order price under the condition of the lock,Change in the exchange rate will directly affect the seller's rate of return.LiJianJiang to reporter calculate bill,Such as a cost for 7 yuan lighter,In December 2012 and day signing order price is 100 yen,Equivalent to each sold only 7.48 yuan,About 6.8% profit margin.If today is 100 yen to the price of the transaction,In accordance with current foreign exchange quotation,Equivalent to each lighter sold only 6.68 yuan,Loss of 4.6%."We export zheshang Japanese products are mostly small commodities,The most profit is only 10%.The yen a close,Our profits all offset,Some even deficit."

　　李建江想念过去市场汇率比较平稳时的“舒坦”。“以前负责国际贸易的业务经理基本上一两个月向我汇报一次价格，需要特批的情况很少。但近段时间，我几乎每天都要接到他打来询问价格的情况。而且往往是我刚下决心，第二天的汇率又跌了。”为了尽可能地规避风险，即便是熟客的大单长单，李建江也尽量不接。

LiJianJiang miss the past market rate of smoothly"comfortable"."Previously responsible for international trade business manager basically one or two month report to me a price,Need special permission situation rarely.But nearly time,Almost every day I hear from him to ask for the price of the call.And is often I just made up his mind to,The second day of the exchange rate fall again."In order to avoid risk as much as possible,Even if is a frequent visitor of large single long single,LiJianJiang also try not to pick up.

　　亏本的生意不可能做，涨价成为必然，“即便客户认同，但我们的产品在日本市场上的竞争力还是跟着在下降。”李建江说。

Sacrifice business might not do,Become inevitable rise in price,"Even if the recognition of the clients,But our products in Japan market competitiveness or follow in the fall."LiJianJiang said.

　　联动效应不容小觑

Linkage effect to be reckoned

　　来自浙江省商务厅的统计数据显示，日本是浙江省第四大出口市场(含欧盟、东盟)，2012年出口额为134.49亿美元，约占整个出口额的6%。“刚刚召开的G20峰会，日本表示会继续无限量货币宽松政策。如此下去，李建江们的‘压力’还将继续增大。”浙江省国际经济贸易研究中心主任张汉东告诉记者，无论时代如何变迁，无论日本经济如何转型，汇率作用于出口的基本原理一般不变，即货币升值杀伤竞争力，货币贬值增强竞争力。日元汇率正是基于这最简单的道理采取贬值策略，以实现经济自救。

From zhejiang business hall of the statistical data shows,Japan is the fourth largest export market of zhejiang province(Including the European Union/asean),In 2012, exports to 13.449 billion us dollars,Accounts for about 6% of the whole exports."Just at the G20 summit,Japan says will continue to an unlimited monetary easing.So down,The LiJianJiang‘pressure’Will continue to increase."Zhejiang international economic and trade research center director ZhangHanDong told reporters,No matter how times change,No matter how the Japanese economy transformation,Exchange rate effect on the basic principle of the same general export,Namely currency appreciation kill competitiveness,Currency devaluation competitiveness.The yen was based on the most simple take depreciation strategy,In order to achieve economic self-help.

　　“事实上，不仅是对日出口的商家，日元的贬值对于我省贸易都是有影响的。”张汉东表示，尽管日本经济衰退时间和周期较长，但日本的国家竞争力和产业竞争力的优势依然存在。日元贬值无疑将会加剧日元产品的竞争力和出口优势，甚至将直接冲击亚洲市场的出口组合，对我省贸易外部环境的破坏性和干扰性加大。“降价后的日本产品在全球市场的竞争力是不可小觑的。它们将有可能成为‘浙江制造’在国际市场上强有力的对手。”张汉东说。

"In fact,Not only for day export business,The decline in the value of the yen to trade in our province is influential."ZhangHanDong said,Although the Japanese economy recession time and cycle is long,But Japan's national competitiveness and industrial competitiveness still exist.The weak yen will undoubtedly will aggravate the yen the competitiveness of their products and export advantage,Even will directly impact the Asian market export combination,In our province to trade the external environment destructive and interference resistance increase."After the reduction of Japanese products in global market competition to be reckoned with.They will likely be‘Zhejiang manufacturing’In the international market of strong opponents."ZhangHanDong said.

　　另外，日资在浙江的投资也不可避免地会受到影响。据悉，2012年日本在浙江境内投资4.59亿元。“日元的贬值会直接导致他们投资成本的上涨，因此2013年我们吸引日资投资的难度会加大。”张汉东说。

In addition,Japanese in zhejiang investment also inevitably be affected.It is reported,In 2012, Japanese in zhejiang domestic investment of 459 million yuan."The decline in the value of the yen will directly lead to the rise in the cost of their investment,So in 2013 we attract Japanese investment will increase the difficulty."ZhangHanDong said.

　　分散风险做强产品

Diversification of risk and stronger products

　　面对接下来日元贬值可能带来的一系列问题，浙商们正在积极破题。

In the face of the weak yen next may lead to a series of problems,Zhejiang traders are actively ".

　　更加灵活地选择结算币种，能有效地抵御短期内的汇率变化风险。上虞同方劳保用品有限公司是一家专业生产各种劳保手套的企业，产品八成以上出口日本，2012年对日出口产值约6000万美元。公司负责人朱志新告诉记者，由于他们在近期的订单中均采用美元作为结算币种，因此避开了日元贬值带来的损失。依然以那只成本7元的打火机为例，记者算了下，保持6.8%的利润率的前提下，当天若用美元签单的价格约为1.19美元。而按照今天1美元对人民币6.2821元的挂牌汇率计算，打火机实际的卖出价格为7.47元，利润率约为6.7%。

More agilely choose settlement currency,Can effectively resist the short-term changes in the exchange rate risk.Shangyu tongfang labor insurance supplies co., LTD. Is a professional manufacturer of various kinds of Labour protection glove enterprise,More than eighty percent of the products are exported to Japan,In 2012, to export value of about 60 million dollars.The company ZhuZhiXin told reporters,In the near future due to their orders are adopt the dollar as the settlement currency,So to avoid the loss of the devaluation of the yen.Still in that only cost $7 lighter as an example,The reporter calculate,Keep 6.8% of the profit margin of the premise,If the dollar sign the bill price is about $1.19.And according to this $1 to 6.2821 yuan hang out one's shingle exchange rates,Lighter the actual selling price is 7.47 yuan,Profit rate is about 6.7%.

　　“不要将鸡蛋放在同一个篮子里”，此时也显得极为重要。李建江告诉记者，他现在最庆幸的是，由于贸易壁垒等原因，他在几年前开始了对其他市场的开拓。“日本虽然是我们最主要的市场，但其他地方、尤其是新兴国家市场的开拓现在也多有起色。我们国内的市场，去年以来也有了很大的增长。另外，我们还与万宝路烟草公司有合作。”

"Don't put your eggs in one basket",At this time also appears very important.LiJianJiang told reporters,He is now the most fortunately,Due to the trade barriers and other reasons,He began a few years ago to other market development."Although Japan is our main market,But other place/Especially in emerging countries market development are now much better.Our domestic market,Since last year has been a great increase.In addition,We also and marlboro tobacco companies have cooperation."

　　当“人口红利”不再成为价格竞争优势的时候，产品创新带来的附加值将大大增强产品的竞争力。

when"Demographic dividend"No longer become the price competitive advantage,The added value of product innovation brings will greatly enhance the competitiveness of their products.

　　位于泗门镇的宁波惠康实业有限公司，凭借掌握的64项授权专利技术，卓越的研发优势，不但吸引了大量的订单，还真正起到了“吸金”效应。董事长陈越增告诉记者，以往的新品研发，都是企业先投资，新品研发出来后再去寻找客户，不但有研发投资的风险，还要看人脸色行事。“而现在，我们会要求客户先行支付研发费，知识产权按协议或惠康独有，或共享。从2011年开始到现在，已有美国、日本、韩国等多个国家的十多家知名企业先行向我们支付研发费用，累计近200万元，降低了企业的研发风险，利润也得到了保证。”

Is located in the town of ningbo welcom si door industry co., LTD,With master of 64 item of authorized patent technology,Outstanding research and development advantage,Not only attracted a large number of orders,Also really played"Suction gold"effect.The chairman of the board ChenYueZeng told reporters,New product research and development in the past,Enterprises are the first investment,New product research and development after coming out again to looking for customers,Not only have the risk of r&d investment,Also to have face."And now,We will ask the customer to pay first development fee,Intellectual property rights according to agreement or welcom unique,Or sharing.Begin from 2011 to now,For the United States/Japan/South Korea and other countries of more than ten famous enterprises leading to we pay the development costs,Accumulated nearly 2 million yuan,To reduce the risk of enterprise development,The profits are ensured."

　　[延伸]

[extension]

　　美元：走势不太乐观

dollars:Trend is not too optimistic

　　“虽然美国经济复苏基础日见稳固，但是美国各项经济数据表现时好时坏，所以未来美元走势的不确定性仍然很大。”正略钧策咨询公司合伙人杨鑫阁表示,对美国而言，如果美元汇率出现自由落体般的下坠，美国经济受到的打击将远远超过从美元汇率下跌获得的好处，目前美国的大多数贸易伙伴的经济都进入了疲软状态，美元汇率下跌对美国出口的刺激作用是有限的。美元汇率急剧下跌不仅会导致美国通货膨胀加剧，还会迫使联邦储备委员会大幅度地提高利率，这将对美国经济带来新的打击，甚至会导致外国投资者出售股票，其后果可能是灾难性的。

"Although the U.S. economic recovery became more and more solid foundation,But the U.S. economic data show the ups and downs,So the future trend of the uncertainty of the dollar remains strong."Is slightly jun strategy consulting company partner YangXinGe said,For America,If the dollar in free fall of drop,The U.S. economy suffered from will be far more than the dollar fell get benefits,At present most of America's trading partners economic in weak state,The dollar fell to the United States export stimulation is limited.The dollar fell sharply will not only lead to inflation in the United States,The federal reserve will be forced to raise interest rates substantially,This will bring new blow to the U.S. economy,Even can lead to foreign investors sell stocks,The consequences could be disastrous.

　　欧元：强势“惹人忧”

euro:strong"Provoking sorrow"

　　2013年欧元可谓开年大吉，1月欧元对美元的累计涨幅高达2.8%，而去年第四季度累计涨幅才2.6%。然而，这样的涨势并不是欧元区各国所期待的，欧元集团主席容克甚至发出警告称欧元“高得危险”。

2013 euros is open year just fine,1 month in the euro/dollar accumulated or as high as 2.8%,And the fourth quarter of last year to 2.6% cumulative increase.however,This trend is not the eurozone countries to look forward to,The euro group chairman RongKe even warn the euro"High risk".

　　不得不说，容克的担忧并非空穴来风。数据显示，欧元区12月失业率高达11.8%，为1995年以来最高水平。IMF预计，欧元区2013年GDP将萎缩0.2%。

Have to say,The RongKe caveats are in order.Data display,The euro zone 12 month's 11.8% unemployment rate,For 1995 years the highest level.IMF is expected to,The eurozone GDP in 2013 to 0.2% will atrophy.

　　上海财经大学国际金融系教授奚君羊表示：“欧元未来走势，会有一定的下滑，但是是技术性的调整，并非是持续低迷的下跌。”

Shanghai university of finance and economics professor of international finance XiJun sheep said:"Euro future trends,There will be a certain decline,But is a technical adjustment,Is not sustained downturn fall."

　　英镑：下一个做空猎物？

pounds:A short game?

　　除了日元之外，对冲基金们找到了一个新目标——英镑。瑞银全球外汇主管Mansoor Mohi-uddin表示，英镑正面临追随日元的风险，可能会成为下一个遭遇大规模贬值的主要货币。

In addition to outside the,Hedge funds have found a new target - pounds.Ubs global foreign exchange competent Mansoor Mohi - uddin said,Pounds is facing the risk of follow the yen,May be the next encounter large depreciation of the major currencies.

　　美国商品期货交易委员会的最新数据显示，做空英镑的投机者数量高于做多英镑的投机者数量，这是5个月来首次出现这种情况。“英国经济糟糕的表现是打压英镑的罪魁祸首。”一位银行业内分析人士指出，当前市场对英国经济普遍的悲观预期，很可能导致英镑继续贬值，从而为对冲基金们提供获利空间。

The commodity futures trading commission's latest data display,Do empty pounds speculators number higher than do more than the number of pounds speculators,This is the first five months to appear this kind of circumstance."The UK economy bad performance is suppressing pounds culprit."A bank industry analysts pointed out,The current market for the UK economy generally pessimistic expectations,Is likely to lead to pound continue to depreciate,So as to offer the hedge funds profit space.

　　(据《国际金融报》)

(According to[International financial report])

　　货币战真的来了吗？

Currency war really here?

　　应该说，“货币战争”是本轮国际金融危机中一个被反复炒作的概念。早在2010年下半年，有关“货币战争”的说法就一度甚嚣尘上。当时，由于美国联邦储备委员会实施“零利率”和“量化宽松”政策，美元汇率走低，进而引发韩国、巴西、新加坡和泰国等干预外汇市场，以阻止本币对美元过快升值。此外，中美在人民币汇率问题上频繁交锋，也增添了当时国际社会对于“货币战争”的担忧。

Should say,"Currency war"Is this international financial crisis a repeated the concept of speculation.Early in the second half of 2010,relevant"Currency war"That is blatant once.At that time,Because the United States federal reserve implementation"interest"and"Quantitative easing"policy,Dollar exchange rate lower,Causing South Korea/Brazil/Singapore and Thailand intervention in foreign currency markets,To prevent local currency appreciation against the dollar too fast.In addition,China and the United States on the Chinese currency exchange frequently,Also add to the international society for at that time"Currency war"concerns.

　　如果把两年半前的那场争论称为“货币战争1.0”，过去一两个月国际社会围绕日元大幅贬值引发新的争论，姑且称之为“货币战争2.0”。

If the two and a half years ago as the argument"Currency war 1.0",Over the past two months the international community around the yen depreciated sparked new debate,Tentatively called"Currency war 2.0".

　　引发“货币战争2.0”争论的导火索是日本新一届政府的超常规货币政策。今年1月22日，在安倍晋三政府的持续压力下，日本央行宣布，将尽快使日本通货膨胀率达到2%的目标，以摆脱多年以来困扰日本经济的通货紧缩问题。同时，日本央行宣布，将从2014年开始，实施日本版“量化宽松”政策，每月购入一定额度的金融资产。

cause"Currency war 2.0"The fuse debate is Japan's new government of supernormal monetary policy.January 22,,The government's continued in shinzo Abe under pressure,The bank of Japan announced,As soon as possible to make Japan inflation to 2% target,To get rid of the trouble for many years of the Japanese economy deflation problem.At the same time,The bank of Japan announced,Will begin from 2014,Implementation Japan edition"Quantitative easing"policy,Monthly purchase a certain limit of financial assets.

　　国际社会不少人士担心，虽然日本央行此举名义上是为了刺激经济增长，但客观上必将造成日元贬值的后果。同为全球出口大国的德国首先对日本提出责难。随后，中国官方媒体也对日本政策提出批评。

Many people worry that the international community,Although the bank of Japan it is nominally in order to stimulate economic growth,But which will cause the weak yen consequences.As the first global exporter Germany to Japan evacuate.then,China's official media have criticized for Japanese policy.

　　在接下来的讨论中，人们发现，日元贬值并非国际外汇市场的孤立现象，一定时期内，美元、英镑、韩元等均出现较大幅度贬值。据统计，自2007年年中以来，英镑汇率几度大起大落，截至目前，按贸易加权平均汇率计算，英镑仍贬值超过20%。

In the following discussion,People found,The weak yen is not isolated phenomenon of international foreign exchange market,A certain period of,dollars/pounds/Won all appear very depreciate significantly.According to the statistics,Every year since 2007 in the past,Sterling exchange rate marked ups and downs of degrees,So far,According to the trade weighted average rate calculation,Sterling devaluation is still more than 20%.

　　如果各国竞相采取使本国货币贬值以扩大出口的政策，就非常符合国际货币基金组织和G20等定义的“竞争性贬值”政策，也就是我们一般理解的“货币战争”。

If the nations of the world to take to weaken the currency to expand export policy,Is very much in line with the international monetary fund and the definition of G20, etc"Competitive devaluation"policy,Also is we usually understand"Currency war".

　　但必须指出的是，虽然各国在面临国内经济困境时，通过压低本币汇率进而扩大出口，是一个很富有吸引力的政策选项，但在全球化时代，各国汇率政策不仅受到国内经济状况的影响，而且受到国际贸易伙伴的制约，要实行以邻为壑的“竞争性货币贬值”政策，其实难度非常之大。

But it must be pointed out that,Although countries in the face of domestic economic trouble,Through the lower local currency exchange rate and expand exports,Is a very attractive policy options,But in the age of globalization,World exchange rate policy is not only the influence of the domestic economy,And by the international trade partner restriction,To implement the do harm to a neighbour"Competitive devaluation"policy,In fact the difficulty is very big.

　　正因如此，讨论“货币战争2.0”时代已经来临尚缺乏足够根据。与其说国际外汇市场正出现“战争”，不如说各国为尽早摆脱危机、刺激经济增长而采取的货币政策，正在外汇市场中引发一波一波的“涟漪”。

Because of this,discuss"Currency war 2.0"The time has come for lack of enough according to.International foreign exchange market is not there"war",As governments to get rid of the crisis as soon as possible/To stimulate growth by monetary policy,Are foreign exchange market triggered a wave of a wave"ripple".

　　但“货币战争2.0”的讨论，同样暴露了国际外汇市场的风险。如果缺乏足够的协调和合作，各国汇率无序、过度波动，必将引发新的风险。

but"Currency war 2.0"discussion,Also exposed the international foreign exchange market risk.If lack of coordination and cooperation,World exchange rate disorder/Excessive volatility,Be sure to cause new risks.

　　从这个意义上说“货币战争”并未来临，但汇率过度波动的风险依然存在，各国未雨绸缪正当其时。 (明金维 据《国际金融报》)

In this sense"Currency war"Did not come,But the currency fluctuations over the risks remain,All countries to the frontlines and save for a rainy day. (Ming JinWei According to[International financial report])

　　[微评]

[micro review]

　　刘东亮(招商银行高级金融分析师)：尽管我们不能将当前东亚地区的货币形势称之为“货币战”，但某种程度上的竞争性贬值已经逐渐浮出水面。

LiuDongLiang(China merchants bank senior financial analyst):Although we can't the current east Asian monetary situation call"Currency war",But a certain degree of competitive devaluation has gradually emerging.

　　张明(中国社科院世经所国际投资室副主任)：日元贬值所带来的外溢效应表现在三个方面，一是会给其他国家造成升值压力，甚至引发汇率战、贸易摩擦升级；二是加剧全球短期资本流动的规模和波动性；三是导致全球能源与大宗商品价格高位震荡，从而给包括中国在内的国家带来输入性通胀压力。

Zhang Ming(The Chinese academy of ShiJingSuo international investment, deputy director of the room):The weak yen brought about by the spillover effect shown in three aspects,It is to be able to give other countries cause upward pressure,Even cause rate war/Trade friction upgrade;The second is fueling global short-term capital flow scale and volatility;The third is causing global energy and commodity prices high shock,To the country, including China, bring input sex inflationary pressure.

　　彭文生(中金公司首席经济学家)：人民币对日元升值20%，将大致对应我国实际有效汇率上升1.5%左右，可能造成我国实际出口下降约2.5个百分点。但在中日双边贸易上，由于对日出口的重要性已大幅下降，这在一定程度上减弱了日元贬值对中国出口的负面影响。我们预测今年中国对日本出口量可能出现最多4个百分点的小幅回落，其对食品饮料、动植物产品、木制品和纺织品等部分行业影响稍大。而在向第三国出口方面，日元贬值将给我国印刷机械、汽车零件、电视和晶体管领域出口带来竞争。除了贸易渠道的影响之外，日本极度货币宽松政策还会通过资金跨国流动来影响我国。

PengWenSheng(Cicc's chief economist):The yuan to rise by 20% against the yen,In our country will be roughly corresponding to the actual effective exchange rate rise by about 1.5%,May cause the reality of our country exports fell about 2.5%.But in the bilateral trade,Because of the importance of export, has declined dramatically,This to a certain extent weakened the yen depreciation on China's export negative influence.We forecast this year China exports to Japan may appear up to 4% down slightly,The food and beverage/Animal or plant products/Wood and textiles part industry bigger influence.And in the third country to export,The weak yen will give our printing machine/Auto parts/TV and transistor field competition from export.In addition to the influence of the trade channel outside,Japan extreme monetary easing will through the capital transnational flow to influence our country.