突破千亿应无悬念

Breakthrough escape should have no suspense

　　分析人士表示，本周净回笼9100亿元可能与1月外汇占款攀升有关。市场预计1月外汇占款可能再度突破千亿元，最乐观的预计是达到6000亿元。

Analysts said,This week withdrawal of net 910 billion yuan may and January foreign funding of the climb.The market is expected to January funding of foreign exchange may again hit one hundred billion yuan,The most optimistic are expected to reach 600 billion yuan.

　　去年金融机构外汇占款仅增长4946.47亿元，月均增长约400亿元。去年11月，外汇占款减少736亿元。12月，人民币贬值预期基本消退，资本流入压力再度加大，国内经济回升势头确立，吸引了境外资本流入。当时美联储继续推行的量化宽松政策也推动了资本流入我国。12月，金融机构外汇占款增加1346亿元。分析人士预计短期内这一趋势将延续。

Last year, foreign financial institutions funding of growth only 494.647 billion yuan,The average monthly growth of about 40 billion yuan.Last November,Reduce foreign funding of 73.6 billion yuan.December,The devaluation of RMB expected basic resolve,Capital inflow pressure increased again,The domestic economy picks up momentum established,Attracted foreign capital inflow.At that time the fed continued to implement the quantitative easing policy but also promote the capital into our country.December,Foreign financial institutions funding of an increase of 134.6 billion yuan.Analysts expect the short term this trend will continue.

　　已公布的统计数据显示，1月贸易顺差与FDI均环比小幅下降，但出口同比增速达25%。当月贸易顺差为291.47亿美元，FDI为92.7亿美元，二者之和约为384亿美元，折合人民币约2400亿元。分析人士表示，再考虑到其他流入资金，1月外汇占款增长再度突破千亿元应无悬念。

Published figures show,January trade surplus and FDI are link fell slightly,But export 25% year-on-year growth.The trade surplus for 29.147 billion dollars,FDI for 9.27 billion dollars,Their contract for 38.4 billion dollars,Amount to RMB 240 billion yuan.Analysts said,To consider the other into the capital,January foreign funding of growth again topped one hundred billion yuan should be no suspense.

　　1月汇率因素也支持资本流入。当月人民币对美元小幅升值，美元指数下跌，人民币对日元大幅升值。

January rate factor also support capital inflow.The appreciation of the RMB against the us dollar small,Dollars index fell,The yuan to rise in the yen.

　　净回笼非货币调控转紧

Net of non-monetary regulation turn tight

　　本周央行以利率招标方式开展28天期规模为300亿元的正回购操作，这是央行在公开市场时隔近8个月后首次开展正回购。在过去8个月时间里，逆回购曾代替正回购担当央行公开市场操作的主要工具。

This week the central bank interest rate bidding to carry out and day period scale for 30 billion yuan is buyback operation,This is the central bank in the open market after nearly eight months after the first carry out positive repurchase.In the past eight months,Reverse repurchase have instead of positive repurchase bear central bank open market operations, the main tool.

　　统计数据显示，为保证春节期间市场流动性充裕，央行在春节前一周实施规模为8000多亿元的逆回购操作，目前市场资金面宽裕，上海银行间同业拆借利率各品种利率均处在较低水平，7天期、14天期利率维持在3%以下。在这一背景下，暂停逆回购、重启正回购操作属于情理之中，大规模净回笼并不意味着货币调控转紧。

Statistics show,In order to ensure market liquidity abundant during the Spring Festival,The central bank in a week before the Spring Festival implementation scale for more than 8000 yuan of reverse repurchase operation,The present market financing area well,Shanghai interbank loan interest rates each type are in a low level,7 days period/14 days period rates below 3%.In this background,Suspended reverse repurchase/Restart is buyback operation belong to in the reason,Large-scale withdrawal of net doesn't mean monetary control turn tight.

　　值得注意的是，2月美元指数又现走强态势。分析人士表示，美国经济基本面的好转支撑美元走强。如果美元出现趋势性走强，将给人民币带来贬值压力，届时资本大规模流入的局面可能逆转。

It is important to note that,February is the dollar index and stronger situation.Analysts said,The United States economic fundamentals better support stronger dollar.If the dollar appear stronger trend,Will bring to RMB devaluation pressure,The large-scale capital inflow situation may be reversed.