美欧启动自贸谈判：

Initiate the trade talks in the us and Europe:

　　——访国务院发展研究中心对外经济研究部部长隆国强

- visit foreign economic research department under the state council development research center of the long lung

　　全球区域贸易格局就像一盘意大利面，相互交织，彼此影响，现在，盘子里最大最粗的两根面条很可能粘连成一根。2月13日，美国总统奥巴马、欧洲理事会主席范龙佩和欧盟委员会主席巴罗佐发表联合声明，宣布双方将在今年6月底前正式启动双边自由贸易谈判。

The global regional trade pattern is like a plate of pasta,intertwined,Influence each other,now,On the plate the largest two root noodles may well adhesion to a root.On February 13th,U.S. President barack Obama/European council President Herman van rompuy and European commission President jose Manuel barroso issued a joint statement,Announced that both sides will be launched before the end of June a bilateral free trade talks.

　　消息一出，立即引起包括中国、巴西在内的诸多新兴经济体的关注和重视。中国商务部新闻发言人沈丹阳在2月20日的例行发布会上表示，希望有关谈判能够遵循开放、透明等基本原则。巴西外交部长帕特里奥塔2月18日表示，美国与欧盟在农业领域的谈判条件还不成熟，农产品补贴问题将是巨大障碍。

The news,Immediately cause including China/Many emerging economies of Brazil, concern and attention.Shen Danyang, spokesman for China's ministry of commerce on February 20, said at a regular conference,Hope the negotiations can follow to open/Basic principles such as transparent.Brazil's foreign minister said patriota February 18,The United States and the European Union negotiating conditions are not mature enough in the field of agriculture,Agricultural subsidies would be a huge obstacle.

　　美欧经济占世界经济总量的一半，美欧贸易占全球贸易总量的三分之一，世界最大的两个经济体启动自贸协定谈判，对多边机制的世贸体系和全球贸易格局将会产生怎样的影响？2月20日，国务院发展研究中心对外经济研究部部长隆国强就上述问题接受了中国经济时报记者的专访。

The us and Europe economy accounts for about half of the world economy,Trade accounts for a third of the global trade volume in the us and Europe,The world's two largest economies started the fta negotiations,The multilateral mechanisms of the wto system and global trade pattern will be what effect?February 20,,Department under the state council development research center of ministry of foreign economic research at zhanglongjiudian the strong on the above question to the China economic times reporter's interview.

　　刺激本国经济复苏

Stimulate its economic recovery

　　掌握新一轮贸易话语权

To master a new round of trade

　　中国经济时报：为什么美欧今年想走到一起？哪些变化影响了他们作出这个决定？

China economic times:Why is this year in the us and Europe want to walk to arrive together?What changes they make this decision?

　　隆国强：世界上最大的经济体和第二大经济体合起来，就是世界上最大的市场。在多哈回合等多边谈判停滞不前的情况下，美国要想推动贸易自由化，需要寻找一个能推得动的、有经济意义的来谈，欧洲是世界最大的经济体，无疑是最合适的。美欧抱团可谓一箭双雕：一是可以构建一个全球最大的且自己可以主导的自由贸易区。二是侧面撬动多边贸易谈判。具体到每一方，也都有各自的利益驱动。

Long strong countries:The world's largest economy and second largest economies combined,Is the world's largest market.In the doha round of multilateral negotiations stalled,If you want to promote trade liberalization in the United States,Need to find a can push to it/Have to talk about economic significance,Europe is the world's largest economy,Is undoubtedly the most appropriate.Us and European unity is kill two birds with one stone:One can build a the world's largest and they can dominate the free-trade area.Second, lateral move of multilateral trade negotiations.Specific to each party,Also have their own interest.

　　从美国的角度，一是促进本国经济的恢复，因为经济复苏需要强心剂，这是一个很现实的好处。二是显示出回旋余地，虽然推不动ＴＰＰ?穴跨太平洋战略经济伙伴关系协定?雪，但还有其他选择，间接撬动和与亚太的合作。三是和欧盟联手，可以率先制定规则，建立起一套技术和服务标准，起到引领全球下一轮贸易、投资自由化标准的作用，掌握贸易话语权。这也是美国的战略考虑。

From the perspective of the United States,One is to improve its economic recovery,Because of the economic recovery needs help,This is a very real benefits.2 it is to show room to maneuver,Although I don't move the TPP?Hole the trans-pacific strategic economic partnership agreement?The snow,But there are other options,Indirect leverage and cooperation with Asia Pacific.3 it is and the European Union,You can take the lead in setting the rules,Set up a technology and service standards,Play a lead the next round of global trade/The role of investment liberalization standard,Master trade power.It is also the strategic consideration.

　　对欧盟的好处是类似的。至少在上述第一点和第三点上是一致的。对处在债务危机中的欧盟来说，需要通过贸易投资自由化刺激经济发展。

Is similar to the benefits of the eu.At least in the first and the third point is the same.For the eu in a debt crisis,Need through the liberalization of trade and investment to stimulate economic development.

　　制定高标准贸易规则将是谈判着力点

Set high standards focus trade rules will be negotiation

　　中国经济时报：哪些问题会是美欧谈判的焦点？

China economic times:What issues will be the focus of the talks in the us and Europe?

　　隆国强：通常的自由贸易区谈判的内容他们都可能涵盖，常规的问题也依然会涉及比如贸易自由化、投资自由化、经济合作自由化、贸易便利化、投资便利化。

Long strong countries:Usually the content of the free trade area negotiations could cover all of them,Regular problem will still involve such as trade liberalization/Investment liberalization/Liberalization of economic cooperation/Trade facilitation/Investment facilitation.

　　唯一不同的是，双边的焦点会在“规则”的谈判上。美欧也是全球规则的引领者，像诸如劳工标准、环境标准等这些问题也会谈，从美欧的角度，强强联手，抱团取暖，势必形成世界上最大的自贸区，在这个区域内，制定一个高标准的规则会是他们谈判的着力点。

The only difference is,Bilateral focus will be on"The rules"On the negotiations.The us and Europe is leading the global rules,Such as labor standards/Environmental standards, etc. These problems also talks,From the perspective of the us and Europe,Combining the,bulk,Is bound to form the world's largest free trade area,In this area,Set a high standard of rules will be their key points in negotiations.

　　对发达国家来说，他们确实是发展到了这个阶段——开始关注这些标准，另外，这些规则也是维护他们竞争力和相对削弱发展中国家竞争力的一个有力的武器。但这些武器在多哈回合等多边谈判中，都被发展中国家“反”掉了。多哈回合后来为什么称之为发展回合？就是发达国家想推的一些谈判的议题没有被纳入，而发展中国家所关心的问题可能都谈了。

For developed countries,They are indeed at this stage - begin to pay close attention to these standards,In addition,These rules is to maintain their competitiveness and relatively weakened the competitiveness of a powerful weapon in the developing world.But these weapons such as the doha round of multilateral negotiations,Are developing countries"Anti -"off.Later why called doha development round?Is the developed countries want to push some of the negotiations of topics not covered,In developing countries may have talked to the concerns.

　　中国经济时报：巴西外交部长帕特里奥塔2月18日表示，美欧在启动自贸谈判之后将遇到较大困难，您认为这些困难会是什么？

China economic times:Brazil's foreign minister said patriota February 18,After launch free trade negotiations in the us and Europe will encounter greater difficulties,What do you think these difficulties be?

　　隆国强：具体会遇到什么困难现在还不好说，这取决于他们把目标定在什么位置上。总体看，这两个国家谈判没有特别敏感或不可逾越的障碍，唯一的困难可能在一些技术标准方面，因为两国产业都有很多技术标准，彼此是不一样的，如果涉及到这些内容，以谁的标准为准可能需要谈判。但这个问题，在自贸区谈判时可以躲过去，避而不谈。

Long strong countries:It is difficult concrete will encounter any difficulties now,It depends on their targeting on what position.The overall look,The two countries negotiations are not particularly sensitive or insurmountable obstacles,The only problems may be on some technical standards,There are a lot of technical standards for industry in both countries,Is not the same as each other,When it comes to these contents,Will be subject to who standards may need to talk.But the problem,In the fta negotiations can hide in the past,avoided.

　　总而言之，美欧谈判没有大的障碍，即使有也可以绕过去。

To sum up,There aren't any big obstacles to talks in the us and Europe,Even if it does, it could go round it.

　　促进全球贸易自由化

Promote global trade liberalization

　　中国经济时报：对全球贸易格局将有怎样的影响？

China economic times:Impact on global trade pattern will be how?

　　隆国强：总体看，不仅有利于美国和欧盟的经贸发展，也有利于推动世贸组织多哈回合谈判进程和全球贸易自由化进程。具体有两方面影响：一是贸易创造。因为消除了制度障碍，可以增加很多贸易机会，刺激潜在的贸易可能。美欧之间的贸易往来本来就很密切，无疑会促进相互贸易和投资。二是贸易转移效应。对区域贸易安排以外的在产品上有竞争关系的国家受到的转移效应的冲击可能更大一些。举个例子，比如德国以前与中国做生意，现在因为有更好的贸易安排，发现和美国做生意比和中国做生意成本更低，所以贸易转向美国。贸易机会转移了，不过区外最大的受害国可能还不是中国，而是和他们有竞争关系的国家，比如日本。三是可能促进美欧及全球经济发展得快一点。作为全球两个最大的经济体，他们的经济发展快了，全球的经济发展也就快了，对全球的贸易和经济增长都会有积极的效果。

Long strong countries:The overall look,Is not only beneficial to the United States and the European Union's economic and trade development,Also conducive to the world trade organization (wto) doha round negotiation process and global trade liberalization.There are two aspects to specific effects:One is the trade creation.Because of the eliminating system obstacles,Can add a lot of trading opportunities,Can stimulate the potential of trade.Trade between the us and Europe were very close,Will no doubt promote mutual trade and investment.The second is trade diversion effect.On regional trade arrangements outside of the product has a competitive relations of the countries under the transfer effect of impact may be larger.Take, for example,Like Germany before doing business with China,Now because of better trade arrangements,Find doing business with the United States lower than the cost of doing business with China,So the trade to the United States.The trade moves,But outside the biggest victimized country may not be in China,But countries with competitive relationship with them,Such as Japan.3 it is possible to promote in the us and Europe and the global economic development faster.As the world's two biggest economies,Their economic development is fast,Global economic development is fast,On global trade and economic growth will have a positive effect.

　　中国需警惕被边缘化

China need to be mindful marginalized

　　中国经济时报：对中国的影响？

China economic times:Impact on China?

　　隆国强：中国和这两大经济体互补性比较强，如果美欧形势更好了，经济发展更快了，需求扩张了，将有利于带动中国的出口。不过，中国还是有一些产品和美欧有竞争关系，比如混凝土设备、机械设备等有可能受到冲击。对中国来说，需要注意两个问题：一是全球主要的经济体建立自贸区后，中国会否被边缘化，因为大家都在试图建立一些自己能主导的，有经济意义的自贸区。二是规则，如果越来越多高标准的规则开始实施，下一步对中国会产生压力，短期内对中国是一个挑战。但也要警惕一些规则的制定背后可能就是瞄准中国，比如国企，对国企进行安全审查，设置很多投资约束等。

Long strong countries:China and the two economies are complementary to each other,If the us and Europe the situation better,Pick up the economy,The demand expansion,Will help drive China's export.but,China still has a number of products and competitive relations in the us and Europe,Such as concrete equipment/Is likely to impact on mechanical equipment, etc.For China,Need to pay attention to two questions:After establishing a free trade zone is the world's major economies,China will be marginalized,Because everybody is trying to build some can dominate by yourself,Has a free trade area of economic significance.Two is the rules,If there are more and more high standard rules,The next step will create pressure for China,In the short term is a challenge for China.But also to guard against some of the rules set behind may be aimed at China,Such as the state-owned enterprises,State-owned enterprises for safety review,Set a lot of investment constraints, etc.

　　有助于刺激多边贸易谈判

Helps to stimulate the multilateral trade negotiations

　　中国经济时报：欧盟和美国都是世界主要经济体，也是多边贸易体制的重要参与者。世贸多边机制会因美欧抱团受掣肘吗？

China economic times:The European Union and the United States is the world's major economies,Is also the important participants in the multilateral trading system.Wto multilateral mechanism by means of constraints in the us and Europe?

　　隆国强：可能有两种效果。一种是作为杠杆有助于撬动和刺激多边谈判。另一种，有可能让大家对多边谈判更加失望，让多边谈判从此被废弃，进而刺激其他国家在区域贸易自由化方面有所加强。目前看，出现前一种效果的可能性更大。

Long strong countries:There are two possible effects.One is as the lever helps to leverage and stimulate the multilateral negotiations.Another kind of,May let you more disappointed to multilateral negotiations,Let the multilateral talks abandoned from now on,And irritate other countries increased in regional trade liberalisation.Now look at,Before an effect is more likely.

　　现在的全球区域贸易格局就像一盘意大利面，相互交织在一起，一个国家谈十几个自贸区，现在很难找出一个国家，一个自贸区都没参加的。这样就使得贸易管理、原产地管理变得复杂。这也是为什么很多国家赞成搞多边，因为只有一个规则，大家一起谈完就完了。美欧启动自贸谈判，会不会刺激其他发展中国家更多加入区域贸易合作，能否撬动多边，现在很难说。

Now the global regional trade pattern is like a plate of pasta,Interwoven together,Talk about a dozen free trade a country,It's hard to find a country,Haven't attended a free trade area.This makes trade management/Distribution management is complicated.This is why many countries in favor of multilateral,Because there is only one rule,Everyone together to talk about the process.Initiate the trade talks in the us and Europe,Will stimulate the other developing countries more to join regional trade cooperation,Can you move the multilateral,It is hard to know.