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2013年2月进出口数据分析--亲民维稳网络舆情监测室
2013-03-12

  2月出口增速为21.8%,比上月回落3.2个百分点,高于市场预期13.4个百分点;进口增速为-15.2%,比上月降低44个百分点,低于市场预期6.8个百分点。进口增速大幅降低带动贸易顺差较去年同期扩大472.3亿美元。除去春节因素后,2月出口增长20.6%,进口增长6.5%。出口和进口增速较1月季节调整后分别增加8.2个百分点和3.1个百分点。

Export growth of 21.8% in February,Than fell 3.2% last month,13.4% above market expectations;Import growth of 15.2%,44% lower than last month,6.8% below market expectations.Import growth sharply lower trade surplus expanded $47.23 billion from the same period a year earlier.Remove after the Spring Festival,February exports increased by 20.6%,Imports rose 6.5%.Export and import growth from January after seasonal adjustment is increased by 8.2% and 8.2% respectively.

  结合1-2月整体出口数据看,今年1-2月出口增速比去年4季度增加14.2个百分点。主要发达经济体中,欧盟、日本、美国1-2月出口增速较去年4季度分别增加17.7个百分点、3.6个百分点和9.6个百分点;东盟和香港1-2月出口增速较去年4季度分别增加9.6个百分点和25.1个百分点。主要新兴市场中,印度、印尼、南非、俄罗斯、巴西5国的1-2月出口增速较去年4季度增加411.5个百分点;对欧盟、香港和5国新兴市场去年出口月度平均占比为16.4%、15.7%、和8.5%,对这些国家和地区出口增速大幅提升是构成1-2月进出口超预期的主要原因。

Combined with the overall export data to see 1 or 2 month,1-2 months this year export growth in the fourth quarter increased by 14.2% than last year.In the major developed economies,The European Union/Japan/Us 1-2 month export growth in the fourth quarter increased 17.7% year on year/3.6% and 9.6%;The association of southeast Asian nations (asean) and the Hong Kong export growth in the fourth quarter year on year 1 to 2 month increased by 9.6% and 9.6% respectively.In the major emerging markets,India/Indonesia/In South Africa/Russia/1-2 month Brazil five countries of export growth in the fourth quarter increased by 411.5% year on year;For the European Union/Hong Kong and five countries of emerging market exports last year monthly average accounted for 16.4%/15.7%/And 8.5%,In these countries and the area of export growth surge is form 1 - the main reason for the import and export more than expected in February.

  考虑到外围经济增长情况,由其基本面变化引致的出口超预期似乎不能得到有效验证。因此,不排除有部分“热钱”通过贸易渠道进入我国,这与1月新增外汇占款大幅增加相符,预计2月份新增外汇占款规模仍然会很大。

Considering the outside economic growth conditions,Caused by the fundamental change than expected exports don't seem to get effective verification.so,Do not rule out some"Hot money"Through trade channels into our country,This accords with the new foreign exchange increase sharply in January,Is expected in February, new foreign exchange will still be very big.

  2月当月对欧盟、美国出口较上月有所增加,其中对欧盟出口提升迅猛,当月对欧盟和美国的出口增速分别为16.5%和15.7%,分别比1月增加了11.3个百分点和1.2个百分点,对出口拉动的同比贡献也分别比1月增加了8.9个百分点和1.9个百分点。2月对日本出口增速下滑至-6.5%,较1月降低了12.2个百分点,对当月同比出口贡献也比上月降低4.6个百分点。此外,2月对主要新兴市场经济体出口均录得正增长,且增长幅度提升较大。印度、印尼、南非、俄罗斯、巴西整体对当月出口同比贡献分别高于美国和欧盟1.0个百分点和0.4个百分点,比上月提高了7.6个百分点。

In February that month for the European Union/U.S. exports increased last month,Strong growth of exports to the eu,During the month of the European Union and the United States export growth were 16.5% and 15.7% respectively,Increased by 11.3% and 11.3%, respectively, compared with January,Compared to the contribution to export-led also increased by 8.9% and 8.9%, respectively, compared with January.2 month to Japan's export growth fell to 6.5%,From January was reduced by 12.2%,For the month year-on-year exports contributed 4.6% lower than last month.In addition,February exports to major emerging market economies have recorded positive growth,And grow larger.India/Indonesia/In South Africa/Russia/Brazil's overall contribution to that month exports were 1.0% and 0.4%, respectively, higher than the United States and the European Union,Is 7.6% higher than last month.

  从贸易方式看,2月一般贸易出口增速为43.3%,比上月增加21.7个百分点,一般贸易出口延续上月增长态势,已经3个月增速提升。2月加工贸易出口增速从1月的14.6%回落至-3.4%,比上月降低了18个百分点。当月一般贸易和加工贸易进口增速分别为-18.9%和-14.0%,分别比上月降低35.8个百分点和54.4个百分点。

Look from the trade way,General trade export growth of 43.3% in February,21.7% more than last month,General trade exports continued growth last month,Already 3 months growth promotion.February processing trade export growth fell from 14.6% in January to 3.4%,Dropped by 18% than last month.General trade and processing trade import growth during the month was 18.9% and 14.0%, respectively,Decrease by 35.8% and 54.4%, respectively, compared with last month.



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