何万篷 

What m tent 

　　关于自由贸易（园）区的决策咨询和政策建议，可谓一波三折。早在21世纪初，自由贸易（园）区便被各界热议，全国各地的保税区不同程度地开展了相关的研究储备。据报道，多地先后呈报了关于保税区转型自由贸易（园）区的政策建议，齐刷刷地向距离最近、效果最直观的自由港——香港看齐。但是这些建议“干货”少、政策障碍多、操作性差，未能根本性地推动决策层面形成强烈而清晰的共识。倒是在社会上产生了一定的概念认知混淆，以至于2008年5月商务部和海关总署下发一纸公文，要求商务主管部门和海关“慎用”自由贸易园区的提法。

About free trade(The garden)The decision-making consultation and policy recommendations,wrangles.In the early 21st century,Free trade(The garden)District was the from all walks of life,Free trade zone across the country has carried out research in different degrees reserves.According to the report,Much has been reported about the transformation of the free trade free trade zone(The garden)The policy Suggestions,Uniformly to the nearest/Effect is the most intuitive free port, Hong Kong.But these Suggestions"Dry goods"less/Policy barriers to more/Operability is poor,Failed to fundamentally promote decision-making levels form a strong and clear consensus.Is produced in the society must be taken not to confuse the concept of cognitive,So in May 2008, the ministry of commerce and general administration of customs issued a paper document,Departments of commercial administration requirements and customs"careful"Free trade zone.

　　事情的转机貌似是温家宝总理在2009年的批示（将“自由贸易区”改为“自由贸易园区”），实则是美国次贷危机引发了全球经济大范围、深层次的震荡调整。中国外贸由连续的2-3倍于GDP增速的“万马狂奔”状态，陡然切换到被各经济体“联合围剿”，增长速度掉到10%以内，甚至低于GDP增速。而且，国际经济危机还将扁平化、隐性化、长期化，外部环境不容乐观。形势促逼决策层深入调研，寻求海关特殊监管区域在体制、税制等方面的突破，以提升贸易便利化程度，增强区域竞争力。在此一波三折的过程中，市场和企业的需求始终走在前面，研究机构和专家学者也在积极呼吁。在有关部门的审慎权衡下，加上外部形势的有效催化，中国自由贸易园区的试点工作，极有可能在不远的将来付诸实施。

Everything's changed is the premier wen jiabao in 2009 appeared to be forbidden(Will be"Free trade zone"Instead of"Free trade zone"),Is the us subprime mortgage crisis triggered a widespread global economy/Deep shock adjustment.China's foreign trade by continuous 2-3 times the GDP growth"Thousands of horse racing"state,Suddenly switch to economies"Joint encirclement and suppression",Growth rate dropped to 10%,Even lower than GDP growth.and,The international economic crisis will be flat/YinXingHua/A long-term,The external environment is not optimistic.The situation forced policymakers in-depth research,Seeking areas under special customs supervision in the system/Tax system, etc,To enhance the level of trade facilitation,Enhance regional competitiveness.In the process of this sorry tale,The requirement of market and enterprise always walk in the front,Research institutions and experts and scholars are actively called for.Under the relevant departments of the prudent trade-offs,Effective catalytic combined with external environment,The pilot work for the China free trade zone,Is likely to be implemented in the near future.

　　最近获批的《浙江舟山群岛新区发展规划》提出，可以在条件成熟时探索建立自由贸易园区，逐步研究建设舟山自由港区。虽然社会各界对“条件成熟”尚难有明确把握，但是看到了经济特区、保税区、出口加工区、保税港、经济技术开发区等特殊经济功能区就地升级的趋势方向。可以预测的是，特殊经济功能区的就地升级，将取代原来的各类新区招安报批，成为“十二五”后半程的重头戏。这个升级方向的要义，就是贸易便利化。相较于国际上成熟的自由贸易园区，中国的海关特殊监管区域在外汇管制、货物监管、企业的注册成立与功能整合（如内外贸一体化、物流与结算集成）等方面存在一系列的限制，充其量是严格管控下的半自由化区域，离岸贸易等业务发展不充分，参与国际经济大循环的深度特别是对经济话语权的争夺、对国际市场潮流的引领，受到严重制约。

Recently approved[Zhejiang zhoushan islands new district development planning]Put forward,You can explore to establish free trade zone when conditions are ripe,Systematically study of zhoushan free port area.Although the social from all walks of life to"Conditions are ripe"It is difficult to have a clear grasp,But to see the special economic zone/The bonded area/Export processing zones/Bonded port/Economic and technological development zones and other special economic zone on the upgrading direction of the trend.Is predictable,Special economic zone of the in-place upgrade,Will replace the original examination and approval of all kinds of new city woo,Become a"The 12th five-year"Second half of the key.The core of this upgrade direction,Is the trade facilitation.Compared to mature on the international free trade zone,Areas under special customs supervision on foreign exchange control of China/Cargo supervision/Enterprises registered and functional integration(Such as foreign trade integration/Integrated logistics and settlement)There are a series of restrictions in, etc,At best, is half liberalisation is strictly controlled,Offshore trade business development, such as inadequate,The depth of the participation in international economic circulation especially voice for the economy/On the international market trend of the led,Severely restricted.

　　这其中，必须注意到跨国企业形态的一个显著变化，即由原来的模块分解，到当下的系统集成。许多世界500强当初到中国内地来，是基于低廉成本导向的，所以先将工厂等生产模块搬过来，产品基本外销或以外销为主。随着中国本土消费市场的成熟，这些跨国公司开始在华设立销售模块。然后设立研发模块，招募技术精英，就近开展R&D，并很快升级到立足中国、面向世界，进行研究开发。此后在华设立投资模块，就是很自然的事情。最后发现，有必要在华设立综合性的运营功能模块，对本企业遍布全球的复杂业务，开展“三协”（资源协调、企业协作、管理协同），由原来的模块分解走到了今天的系统集成。生产性服务业领域的跨国公司，越来越多地升级成“集成商”，这是全球商业革命和生产组织方式的最新动态。截至2012年底，已有1000多家世界跨国公司落户上海。我们可以分析一下其中的结构：265家投资性公司、403家跨国公司地区总部，研发中心则有351个，95%以上地区总部具有两种以上的总部功能。我们的制度建设和环境营造，就要响应这样的企业形态变革。

This one,Must pay attention to the multinational enterprises form a significant change,From the original module decomposition,To the current system integration.Many of the world 500 strong to mainland China,Is based on the low cost leadership,So wait for factory production module first moved,Mainly to export products export for basic or.As China's domestic consumer market maturity,These multinational company began to set up sales module.And then set up a research and development module,Recruit technical elite,Nearby to R&D,And upgrade to base on China soon/To the world,For the research and development.Since setting up investment module in China,Is a very natural thing.Finally found,It is necessary to set up a comprehensive operation function module,This complex business enterprises all over the world,Carry out"Three association"(Resources to coordinate/Enterprise collaboration/Management coordination),From the module decomposition came to today's systems integration.Multinational companies in the field of producer services,Increasingly upgraded to"integrators",This is the newest trend of the global business revolution and the way of production organization.By the end of 2012,Existing more than 1000 world multinational company in Shanghai.We can analyze the structure of them:265 investment companies/Regional headquarters 403 multinational companies,There are 351 research and development center,More than 95% of the regional headquarters with functions of two or more of the headquarters.Our system construction and environmental construction,Will respond to such enterprises change form.

　　上海无疑是国内响应市场和企业需求比较到位的地区之一，在诸多约束条件下，作了许多有益的、力所能及的创新探索。目前看来，国内首个自由贸易园区的试点方案花落上海浦东，没有太大悬念。上海的经济国际化程度最高，肩负着“三服务”（服务长三角、服务长江流域、服务全国）、代表中国参与修改和制定国际游戏规则的重任，自由贸易园区的试点工作必须“高举高打”，不能修修补补、小打小闹。以2010“世博”为分水岭，上海轰轰烈烈搞大招商、大引资的发展阶段基本已过去了，进入到创新业态、提升能级、招（国际）组织、引（世界）机构的新篇章。国际化正是其中的主线，“四个中心”是具体体现。2009年，“四个中心”建设聚焦到“两个中心”上。根据笔者的分析框架，“城”的生命力在于“市”，即交易或贸易、金融和航运都是为贸易服务的。上海“四个中心”的内在逻辑可以梳理如下：国际贸易中心是这座未来的现代化国际大都市的核心定位；在国际金融中心和航运中心两大抓手的强有力支撑、推动下，正在由货物贸易为主向货物贸易和服务贸易并举方向快速迈进，尤其是大力发展基于现代IT和互联网技术的信息贸易；上海的国际贸易中心到位之日，就是国际经济中心建成之时。而国际贸易中心的核心竞争力来自于贸易便利化、自由化。伦敦金融城有个理念——便利就是价值。吸引企业在上海开展国际贸易，就得为市场和企业创造便利、增加价值，这就要革新制度供给，突破甚至颠覆现行的诸多政策和观念，需要“先行先试”的大无畏精神和百折不回的魄力。贸易便利化归根到底是流动自由化，包括人、财、物的流动自由化，这将带动社会全面变革。

Shanghai is undoubtedly the domestic response to the market and the enterprise needs to compare in place of one of the region,Under many constraints,Made many beneficial/Depth exploration of innovation.So far,First domestic free trade zone of the pilot program went to Shanghai pudong,Not much suspense.The highest degree of economic internationalization in Shanghai,Shoulder the"Three services"(Services in Yangtze river delta/Service the Yangtze river basin/Services across the country)/On behalf of the Chinese took part in formulating and modify the rules of the game,The pilot work for the free trade zone must be"Exalted skyer",Can't tinkering/Tinkering around the edges.In 2010"The expo"For the watershed,Shanghai have great investment with a bang/Large investments of the stage of development has been basically,Into the innovation system/Improve the level/recruit(The international)organization/lead(In the world)Mechanism of a new chapter.Internationalization is one of the main line,"The four center"It is the embodiment of the specific.In 2009,,"The four center"The construction focuses on the"Two centers"On the.According to the author's analysis framework,"city"Life lies in"The city",The deal or trade/Finance is in trade and shipping services.Shanghai"The four center"The internal logic of comb can be as follows:International trade center is the core of the modernization of the future international metropolis;In the international financial center and shipping center two fulcrum strong support/Driven by,Is mainly by trade in goods to trade in goods and trade in services and fast forward direction,Especially in developing information trade based on modern IT and Internet technology;In place of Shanghai international trade center,Is the international economic center.And international trade center of the core competence from the trade facilitation/liberalization.A concept - the convenience is worth the city of London.Attract enterprises to develop international trade in Shanghai,Will have to create convenience for the market and enterprise/Add value to,This is about to supply innovation system,Break even subversion of current policies and ideas,Need to be"First try"The enterprising spirit and indomitable courage.Liberalization of trade facilitation in the final analysis is flowing,Including people/goods/The flow of liberalisation,This will lead to social reform.

　　在这里笔者想特别强调一下国际贸易中心的标的物。上海的货物贸易将平稳地恢复性增长，然后在未来的某个时点冲高回落，平稳回落，先加后减。而服务贸易将快速增长，长期做加法。服务贸易的高级形式——信息贸易，则将井喷式增长，长期做乘法。2012年，上海信息服务业经营收入突破3600亿元，年增加值同比增长17.5%，增速比全市GDP高出10个百分点之多。我们在自由贸易园区的试点建设中，将会面对熟悉的货物贸易以及不怎么熟悉的服务贸易。特别是信息贸易，不光我们不熟悉，国际上也没有太好的老师，大家几乎在同一起跑线上。譬如说大数据的挖掘和使用，美国白宫科技政策办公室在2012年3月发布了《大数据研究和发展计划》，同时组建了“大数据高级指导小组”。麦肯锡预测，美国需要150万名精通数据的经理人员，以及14万至19万名数据深度分析方面的专家。美国正在握紧大数据这个人类科技领域的最新仪表盘，以求继续保持科技领先地位。这既是挑战，也是上海的机遇。如果克服了挑战、抓住了机遇，上海就很可能成为面向未来的、世界级的“贸易特区”，引领长三角乃至全国真正实现产业升级换代。

Here I want to particularly emphasize the subject matter of the international trade center.Trade in goods will be in Shanghai smoothly recovery growth,And then at some point in the future high rushed back,Smooth back,First, add after subtract.And the service trade will grow rapidly,Add on for a long time.Advanced forms of trade in services, trade information,Will spurt of growth,For a long time to do multiplication.In 2012,,Shanghai information service business income reached 360 billion yuan,In the added value of year-on-year growth of 17.5%,Growth is higher than the city's GDP by as much as 10%.We in the free trade zone in the construction of the pilot,Will face the familiar trade in goods and not very familiar with the trade in services.Especially in trade information,Not only we are not familiar with,Also is not very good teacher in the world,Almost everyone on the same starting line.For example and using big data mining,The White House science and technology policy office released in March 2012[Big data research and development plan],At the same time set up"Big data advanced steering group".McKinsey predicts,America needs 1.5 million master data manager,As well as 140000-190000 data specialists in depth analysis.The United States is holding the human science and technology in the field of big data the latest dashboard,In order to maintain a technology leading position.This is a challenge,Is also the opportunity of Shanghai.If you overcome the challenges/Seize the opportunity,It is likely to be geared to the needs of the future in Shanghai/World class"Trade, d.c.,",Leading the Yangtze river delta and across the country to realize industry upgrading.

　　再回到自由贸易园区可能的先发地——浦东新区。它曾经创造了全国第一个保税区（1990年）、第一个保税物流园区（2004年）、第一个保税港区（2005年），经验之丰富，自不待言。但在最近若干年的发展中，浦东的先发优势有所弱化。话虽极端，但不是完全没有道理。如何以自由贸易园区的试点为契机，来个“热启动”，推进“二次改革”和“二次创业”，需要“实事实做”的精神。概括而言，上海在未来可能的自由贸易园区的试点中，务必“高举高打”、“先行先试”、“实事实做”；落实三大导向（市场需求导向、国际惯例导向、国家竞争力导向）；坚持“三个中心”的联动（国际金融中心、国际航运中心、国际贸易中心）；探索综合创新，而非单项突进。惟有如此，方能以浦东之特，推上海之新，领全国之变。■

Go back to the free trade zone may start in the pudong new area.It had created the first free trade zone(In 1990,)/The first bonded logistics park(In 2004,)/The first bonded port area(In 2005,),Experience of the rich,Is self-evident.But in recent years of development,First-mover advantage in pudong have weakened.Having extreme,But not entirely unreasonable.How to pilot as an opportunity to free trade zone,To a"Warm start",To promote"Second reform"and"Second startup",Need to be"Real facts to do"The spirit of.In terms of generalization,Shanghai in the pilot of possible future free trade zone,Be sure to"Exalted skyer"/"First try"/"Real facts to do";To carry out the three major orientation(Market demand oriented/International practice guidance/National competitiveness);Adhere to the"Three center"The linkage(International financial center/International shipping center/International trade center);Explore the integrated innovation,Rather than a single dash.But so,Is able to pudong,Shanghai new,The change led the national.s

　　（作者系福卡智库专业首席研究员）

(The author is blessing card think-tank professional chief researcher)