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浅析中国钢铁业对进口铁矿石的“依赖症”--亲稳网络舆情监控室
2013-05-17
近几年,来自巴西和澳洲的铁矿占中国进口总量的比例一直保持上升的趋势,2012年占比为69%,达到近十年来的最高值,供应来源集中度提高。数据显示,中国铁矿石需求增长促使进口铁矿石数量在10年间增长了6.4倍,进口矿依存度2001年为39.7%,2012年达71%。事实证明,进口铁矿石无法取代并有继续增加的趋势。中国的铁矿石进口依赖也在持续增强。
In recent years,Iron ore from Brazil and Australia accounted for the proportion of imports of China keep rising trend,In 2012, 69%,To achieve the highest in nearly a decade,Increase of concentration of supply sources.According to data,China's iron ore demand has prompted imported iron ore quantity increased by 6.4 times in 10 years,Import dependency at 39.7% in 2001,Up to 71% in 2012.The fact proved that,Can not replace imported iron ore and has a tendency to continue to increase.China's iron ore import dependence continues to increase.
由于钢市一直处于低迷态势,受钢材价格回落影响,钢铁产量也有所下降,铁矿石需求有所减弱,受需求放缓的影响,铁矿石价格一直呈波动下行的走势,目前铁矿石价格在每吨130.20美元,年初迄今下跌10%。另从美国地质调查局了解到得消息称,目前全球每年铁矿石产量约在20亿吨,全球铁矿石处于供大于求的格局。
Due to the hong kong-listed has been in a downward trend,Influenced by steel prices fell,Steel production also fell,Demand for iron ore,Affected by a slowdown in demand,Iron ore prices have been a downward trend of fluctuations,The price of iron ore at $130.20 a tonne,Is down 10% so far this year.The other understands from the U.S. geological survey said,Today, each year about 2 billion tons of iron ore production around the world,The pattern of global iron ore is in oversupply.
中国是全球最大的铁矿石进口国,占全球海运市场份额的三分之二,截至5月10日,全国30个主要港口铁矿石库存数量为6911万吨,较前一周增加95万吨,周环比增长1.39%。从进口来源地看,三大主要来源地铁矿石数量依旧呈现增减不一格局。其中,来自澳大利亚的铁矿石数量为3180万吨,而来自巴西的铁矿石数量为1330万吨,来自印度的铁矿石数量为169万吨。巴西、印度、澳大利亚三大来源地总库存为4679万吨,占港口总库存的67.70%。
China is the world's largest iron ore importer,Account for two-thirds of the global seaborne market share,As of May 10,,The national 30 main port iron ore inventory quantity is 69.11 million tons,A week before an increase of 950000 tons,Weeks rose 1.39%.Look from the source of imports,Three major source of iron ore quantity still presents the mixed pattern of increase or decrease.Among them,The number of iron ore from Australia is 31.8 million tons,And the number of iron ore from Brazil of 13.3 million tons,1.69 million metric tons of iron ore from India.Brazil/India/Australia three major source of total inventory of 46.79 million tons,Accounting for 67.70% of the port of total inventory.
中国的铁矿石进口依赖持续增强,,一方面是进口增加,另一方面是自产量在下降。
China's iron ore import dependence continues to increase,,On the one hand, increased imports,On the other hand is the yield in the fall.
中国国内矿因低品位、低质量、高成本等诸多因素,在对比进口矿而言,优势全无,因较高的生产成本更是导致其价格相对于进口矿来说并没有优势,所以国内采矿企业的生产积极性并不高。同时由于政府对安全、环保和资源的控制力度日益加强,特别是国内矿开采难度逐渐增加,因此国内矿产量增长较难。
China's domestic mines because of low grade/Low quality/High cost, and many other factors,In contrast in terms of imported ore,No advantage,Caused by higher production costs is its price relative to imports ore, no advantage,So the domestic mining enterprises production enthusiasm is not high.At the same time due to the government for safety/Environmental protection and control of resources is increasingly strengthened,Especially the domestic ore mining difficulty increases gradually,So domestic ore production growth is more difficult.
目前全球铁矿石处于供大于求的局面,且铁矿石近年来一直处于下跌的趋势,外矿价格在国内市场具有一定优势,且在品位上外矿也优先于内矿,因此钢厂必然选择进口矿,内矿受到外矿的打压,这也成为内矿产量减少的一个重要因素。
At present in global iron ore supply situation,And the trend of iron ore has been falling in recent years,Ore price in the domestic market has a certain advantage,Within and outside on the grade ore also takes precedence over mine,Hence mills must choose imported ore,Within the ore outside by the crackdown,This has become mine production to reduce one of the important factors.
虽中国作为世界最大的铁矿石进口国,然在定价权上中国并无话语权,在铁矿石价格方面一直处于被动地位,很容易受到铁矿石价格的牵制,如若在人为的恶意炒作引起铁矿石价格大幅波动,铁矿石价格上升致使钢厂成本上涨,钢企的利润流向海外矿山,这对国内经济影响也是不利的,中国对铁矿石进口依赖的逐步增强,致使国内市场受外矿影响也在不断增强,中国亟需解决这种受外矿牵制的格局。
Although in China, the world's largest iron ore importer,But no voice on the pricing power in China,In terms of iron ore prices have been in a passive position,Vulnerable to iron ore prices,If the iron ore price fluctuations caused by man-made malicious hype,Rise in cost of steel iron ore prices rise,Steel mills profit go overseas mines,This is an adverse effect on domestic economy,China's dependence on iron ore imports increase gradually,Affected by the outside ore in domestic market is also constantly enhanced,China needs to solve this by ore containing pattern.
要解决这一系列的问题,我国的钢铁行业首先要做到的是继续提高国内矿的开采能力,继续加大海外权益矿的投产力度,继续扩宽海外进口矿渠道,继续加大国内钢企生产技术水平公关,扩大废钢等替代品的使用,只有有效的建立起安全、健康的原材料保障机制,最大可能的调整国内钢铁产业结构,或许才能解决当前对外矿过度依赖的不安全感。
To solve this a series of problems,Iron and steel industry in our country must first do is continue to improve the ability of domestic ore mining,Continue to intensify overseas rights and interests of mine production,Continue to broaden overseas channels,We will continue to increase the domestic steel mills production technology level of pr,To expand the use of alternatives such as scrap,Only effective set up security/Healthy material safeguard mechanism,Most likely the domestic steel industry structure adjustment,Perhaps to solve the current over-reliance on foreign mines insecurity.
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