2013年4月社销同比增长12.8%,增速较3月微幅提升0.2个百分点:

In April 2013 club pin up 12.8% from a year earlier,Growth is relatively slight rise by 0.2% in March:

　　2013年4月份,社会消费品零售总额17600亿元,同比名义增长12.8%(扣除价格因素实际增长11.8%)。其中,限额以上企业(单位)消费品零售额8950亿元,增长11.5%。环比看,2013年4月社销增速较3月微幅提升0.2个百分点,扣除价格因素后提升0.1个百分点。剔除石油及制品和汽车的影响前,4月限上商品零售额同比增12.7%,较3月增速提升1.3个百分点,剔除后4月限上商品零售额同比增长15.2%,较3月增速放缓0.5个百分点。社销数据基本符合我们预期,即4月增速情况一般,若在剔除石油、汽车的基础上再剔除本月大幅增长的黄金珠宝,剔除后的限上商品零售额同比增长幅度约为12.6%。

In April 2013,Social total retail sales of consumer goods is 1.76 trillion yuan,Compared to the nominal growth rate of 12.8%(Deducted from the price factors real growth of 11.8%).Among them,Above designated enterprise(unit)Retail sales of consumer goods is 895 billion yuan,Growth of 11.5%.From the,In April 2013 club pin growth relatively slight rise by 0.2% in March,Up 0.1% after deducting price factors.Eliminating the influence of oil and products and car before,Commodity retail sales increased 12.7% year-on-year in April,Up 1.3% from march growth,Out the limit on commodity retail sales rose 15.2% from a year in April,A 0.5% growth in March.Club pin data base in line with our expectations,The growth situation in April,If after stripping out oil/Car out again on the basis of the surge in gold jewelry this month,Out of limit, a commodity retail sales year-on-year growth of around 12.6%.

　　食品类增速较3月下滑3个百分点,服装类增速下滑7.9个百分点:

Food growth fell by 3% in March,Apparel growth fell by 7.9% :

　　分品类看,与超市关系较为密切的粮油食品、饮料烟酒/日用品/体育娱乐用品4月份分别同比增长11.9%/15.2%/4.5%(3月份分别同比增长14.9%/18%/17.6%)。三类商品中占比最大的粮油食品、饮料烟酒类商品增速较3月份下滑3个百分点,主要还是受到禽流感事件的影响。

Points category to see,Related more closely to the supermarket and grain and oil food/Drinks alcohol and tobacco/commodity/sports entertainment products in April rose 11.9% / 15.2% / 4.5% respectively(In march year-on-year growth of 14.9% / 18% / 14.9% respectively).Three kinds of goods accounted for the largest grain and oil food/Drink smoke wine growth goods fell 3% in March,Mainly affected by the event of bird flu.

　　百货相关品类中服装鞋帽、针纺织品同比增长9.5%,较3月份17.4%的增速大幅下滑7.9个百分点。主要是由于:1)今年天气变化波动较大,春夏装销售较差;2)反腐导致现在高端服装销量受到影响;3)服装价格过高,消费者购买意愿不高所致。服装增速的不理想折射出目前百货业普遍面临的窘境,我们认为未来百货行业利润出现拐点的首要条件将是收入增速出现复苏。目前来看,未来百货收入的复苏更多的还是依靠宏观经济的回暖来实现,由于目前经济复苏不明朗,而百货行业至少滞后于经济复苏3-6个月,我们维持对百货行业的谨慎态度。4月化妆品同比增长13.8%,较3月份增速放缓0.6个百分点。

Department related category, clothing shoes and hats/Needle textiles year-on-year growth of 9.5%,Compared with the 17.4% increase in March fell sharply 7.9%.Is mainly due to: 1)The volatile changes in the weather this year,Spring and summer sales is poor;2)Anti-corruption cause now high-end clothing sales are affected;3)Garment price is too high,Consumers purchase intention is not high.Clothing growth not ideal reflects the dilemma facing the retailing industry generally,We believe that the future department store industry profits in the first condition of inflection point will be income growth recovery.At the moment,Future department revenue recovery was more depending on the macroeconomic recovery,Due to the uncertain economic recovery,The department store industry lags behind the economic recovery at least 3-6 months,We keep cautious attitude to the department store industry.Cosmetics year-on-year growth of 13.8% in April,A growth of 0.6% in March.

　　黄金珠宝4月大幅增长72.2%,家电类同比增15.3%:

Gold jewelry jumped by 72.2% in April,Home appliance class increased 15.3% year-on-year,

　　黄金珠宝销售4月同比大幅增长72.2%,主要是4月12日黄金期货出现暴跌,金价创2011年7月以来低点,引发了消费者对黄金珠宝的抢购热情。国内消费者对黄金珠宝的购买热情是我们中长期看好黄金珠宝子行业的最大依据,但短期由于金价下跌,需要注意出现公司增收不增利,甚至毛利为负的情况出现。家电和音响器材4月同比增长15.3%,较3月16.6%的增速降低1.3个百分点。其他品类方面,家具/建筑及装潢材料4月同比分别增长22.0%/18.8%,增速均较3月增速有所放缓(3月为24.9%/21%)。

Gold jewelry sales jumped by 72.2% in April from a year earlier,Mainly on April 12, gold futures plunged,Gold prices hit a low since July 2011,Caused consumers snapping up enthusiasm for gold jewelry.Domestic consumers buying enthusiasm for gold jewelry is our medium and long term bullish on gold jewelry industry's biggest basis,But the short term because of a drop in gold prices,Need to pay attention to companies' income not ZengLi appeared,Even the margin is negative.Household appliances and audio equipment grew by 15.3% in April from a year earlier,From march's 16.6% growth rate by 1.3%.Other categories,Furniture/building and decorating materials respectively increased by 22.0% / 22.0% in April from a year earlier,Both the growth slowed in March(March is 24.9% / 21%).

　　二季度历来为行业淡季,行业结构性机会大于整体基本面机会:

In the second quarter traditionally low season to the industry,Industry structural chance is greater than the overall fundamentals:

　　从行业子行业角度来看,百货弹性较大,但目前销售增速乏力,因此短期百货标的,我们认为可能出现在1)自有物业比例高 2)机构持仓比例小3)大股东股权比例小的零售股可能成为市场炒作的标的。而超市板块我们依然看淡,尤其在CPI反弹较弱,京东、1号店等一批电商开始进行网上超市业务时,未来超市的人流量下滑可能将成为一个长期的趋势,而对于客单价较低的超市业态,人流量下滑可能比客单价提升乏力更致命。黄金珠宝板块短期趋势不明朗,我们建议投资者依然要谨慎乐观,类似前两年的大行情未来可能出现概率较小,因此维持增持评级不变。2季度历来是零售行业的淡季,因此整体板块的大机会需要其他因素的催化剂,而非板块自身的基本面拐点,在宏观经济目前仍然整体不确定性较强的前提下,结构性机会大于整体基本面机会。

From the Angle of industry sector,Department of elastic is bigger,But at the moment, sales growth is weak,"So that short-term department targets,We think that may appear in 1)High proportion of self-owned property 2)Institutional ownership proportion is small three)Major shareholder equity ratio small retailers may market become the target of speculation.The supermarket sector, we still see the light,Especially in the weaker CPI rebound,jingdong/1 store for one batch of electricity to start online supermarket business,Future supermarket traffic decline could be a long-term trend,For the guest unit price lower supermarket formats,Traffic decline might be more deadly than the guest unit price increase fatigue.Gold jewelry sector short-term trend is not clear,We suggest that investors are still to cautious optimism,Similar to the first two years of big prices may appear probability is smaller in the future,Therefore to maintain overweight rating.In the second quarter is off-season of traditional retail industry,So big opportunities for overall sector needs to other factors of the catalyst,Rather than the plate itself fundamental inflection point,In the macro economy is still under the premise of strong overall uncertainty,Structural chance is greater than the overall fundamentals.