9月12日，国务院常务会议通过关于《促进外贸稳定增长的若干意见》。意见明确，将加快出口退税进度，增加对符合条件出口企业的贷款，扩大出口信用保险规模和覆盖面，减免部分法定检验检疫物出入境检验检疫费用。

On September 12,,The state council executive meeting about through[To promote the steady growth of foreign trade some opinions].Opinion clear,Will speed up export tax rebate progress,Increase the export enterprises to meet the conditions of the loan,Expand the export credit insurance scale and coverage,Reduction of legal inspection and quarantine objects the entry and exit inspection and quarantine expenses.

　　这份《意见》，确定了一系列政策措施：

this[opinion],Determine a series of policies and measures:

　　(一)加快出口退税进度，确保准确及时退税。

(a)Speed up the progress of the export tax rebate,To ensure accurate and timely tax refund.

　　(二)扩大融资规模，降低融资成本，支持商业银行努力扩大对小微企业的贸易融资，增加对符合条件出口企业的贷款。

(two)Expand the financing scale,Reduce financing cost,Commercial Banks make efforts to expand the support to small micro enterprise trade financing,Increase the export enterprises to meet the conditions of the loan.

　　(三)扩大出口信用保险规模和覆盖面，特别注意发展对小微企业的信用保险。

(three)Expand the export credit insurance scale and coverage,Pay special attention to the development of small micro enterprise credit insurance.

　　(四)提高贸易便利化水平。简化审批手续，提高通(微博)关效率，降低通关成本。

(four)To improve the level of trade facilitation.Simplify examination and approval procedures,Improve pass(Micro bo)Shut efficiency,Reduce customs clearance cost.

　　(五)妥善应对贸易摩擦，维护我出口企业合法权益。依法实施进口贸易救济，保护国内产业安全。鼓励企业用好区域、次区域合作机制和已生效的自贸协定。

(five)Properly deal with trade friction,Maintenance I export enterprise legal rights.In accordance with the implementation of the import trade relief,To protect domestic industry safety.Encourage enterprises to make good use of regional/Sub-regional cooperation mechanism and executed the fta.

　　(六)积极扩大进口，重点增加进口先进技术设备、关键零部件以及与人民群众密切相关的生活用品，支持企业技术改造，促进贸易平衡。

(six)Actively expand import,Key increase import advanced technology and equipment/The key parts and the people closely related articles for daily use,Support technology improvement of enterprises,Promote trade balance.

　　(七)优化外贸国际市场布局，支持企业开拓非洲、拉美、东南亚、中东欧等新兴市场。

(seven)Optimization of foreign trade international market layout,Support enterprises to exploit Africa/Latin America/Southeast Asia/Emerging markets such as central and eastern Europe.

　　(八)优化外贸国内区域布局，扩大中西部地区对外开放，推动边境省区发展对周边国家的经贸合作。

(eight)The regional layout optimization of foreign trade,Expand opening up in the Midwest,To promote the development of border provinces of the neighboring countries of the economic and trade cooperation.

　　7月出口只增长1%，8月出口只增长2.7%，连续2个月的个位数增长，距离年初制定的10%的全年出口增长目标已经渐行渐远，出口的颓势已经是无法逃避的问题。《意见》的出台说明政府已经意识到，如果不采取措施的话，出口作为经济发动机熄火的局面将无法逆转。

July export only 1% growth,August export only 2.7% growth,For two consecutive months of single-digit growth,At the beginning of distance for 10% of the annual export growth target has wandered off,Export flagging is ineluctable problem.[opinion]Come on stage that the government has realized,If measures are not taken to words,Export as economic engine flameout situation will not be able to reverse.

　　但我们综合评价，这一系列政策低于市场部分乐观预期，实施环节难度较大，即使这些政策得到较好实施，也未必会有特别明显的积极效果，只能部分缓解出口面临的压力，外贸稳增长仍然任重道远。

But we comprehensive evaluation,This a series of policy below market part of the optimistic expectations,Implementation link difficult,Even if these policies to get a good implementation,Also may not have a significant positive effect,Only part of the ease export pressure,Foreign trade firm growth is still a long-term task.

　　事实上，这份意见的主要看点仍然在出口退税政策，低于此前市场预期的也正是出口退税政策，出口退税的范围和比例并没有提高，而重在要加强进度和确保执行环节。

In fact,The opinions of the main attraction is still in the tax reimbursement for export policy,Rather than market expectations of it is also the export tax rebate policy,The scope of the export tax rebate and scale did not improve,And to strengthen on schedule and to ensure that the link.

　　此前我们提到过，上市公司二季报业绩出现了很多财税因素的负面影响，而出口退税政策在执行环节上的不到位正是一个普遍现象，这背后仍然是财政压力所致。

After we mentioned,The listed company second quarterly report performance appeared a lot of finance and tax factors negative influence,And the tax reimbursement for export policy in the execution of the link does not reach the designated position is a common phenomenon,Behind this is still financial pressures.

　　最新公布的财政收支数据显示，8月份的财政收入增长仅4.2%，而中央财政收入同比下降6.7%，这是一个非常罕见的数据。而地方财政收支的压力更大，近期我们不断看到，地方政府不惜通过15%以上的融资成本借道信托找钱。另外，这几天有些市场人士期待所谓的“万亿财政结余”来稳增长，事实上这个万亿结余也不过是个季节性的数字，因为财政收支安排的季节性因素，和去年同期相比，临时性的财政结余数量反而有所缩窄。

The latest financial revenue and expenditure data display,August fiscal revenue growth of only 4.2%,And the central fiscal revenue fell 6.7% year-on-year,This is a very rare data.And the local financial revenue and expenditure greater pressure,Recently we have seen,The local government at through the more than 15% of the financing cost tailgating trust change.In addition,These days some people in the markets are looking forward to the so-called"Trillions of fiscal balance"To steady growth,In fact the trillions of balance also however is a seasonal digital,Because financial revenues and expenditures of the seasonal factors,And compared with the same period last year,Temporary fiscal balance quantity instead has constriction.

　　我们认为，除非重新增加大量赤字安排，否则在国内诸多稳增长政策需要花钱的当下，指望出口退税这个领域出现较大动作非常不现实。现有的出口退税政策如果能够得到较好执行，就已经是一个很不错的结果了，企业的压力只会得到少许缓解。

We think,Unless to increase a lot of deficit arrangement,Otherwise in the domestic many steady growth policy need to spend money now,Expect export tax rebate this field appear bigger action is not reality.The existing export tax rebate policy if can get better execution,It is a very good results,Enterprise's pressure will only get a little ease.

　　系列政策中的另一个看点，关于信贷支持这些领域的问题，指望商业银行进一步大力支持，我们认为同样不宜期望过高。一方面是银行本身不良增加，业绩增速放缓，地方融资平台展期等“政策性因素”已经给银行带来了较大的现实压力和长期隐患；另一方面，出口领域的不良增加，出口企业回款相对不利的背景下，银行业自身也有趋利避害的需求。

The other a series of policy aspect,About the problem of credit support these areas,Count on commercial Banks further support,We think the same shoulds not be too high expectations.On the one hand is the bank itself bad increase,Performance growth is slowing,Local financing platform extension, etc"Policy factors"To the bank has brought the big real pressure and long-term hidden trouble;On the other hand,Export sector bad increase,Collection of export enterprises under the background of relative disadvantage,Banking itself also has disadvantages of demand.

　　当然，整体上支持出口的政策还是非常值得肯定的，其他一些政策，比如提高政府服务效率、提供更多便利、优化出口布局等也有部分看点，但肯定政策的出发点并不等于期待明显的政策效果。

Of course,Overall support export policy or very commendable,Some other policy,Such as improve the service efficiency/Provide more convenient/Optimizing export layout and so on also have read part,But certainly policy starting point is not to expect significant policy effect.

　　上轮金融危机以来，中国的出口告别了名义增速的持续暴增，对经济的拉动作用不断下降，远远低于国内投资的影响。出口压力主要来自于三方面：外需不振、劳动力等要素成本上升、人民币汇率升值。

Since the financial crisis on the wheel,China's export said goodbye to the nominal growth of continuous jumps,On economic role in boosting declining,Far below the influence of domestic investment.Outlet pressure mainly from three aspects:Overseas market demand of/The rise in the cost of elements such as labor force/The RMB exchange rate appreciation.

　　外需的问题几乎难以有所作为，尽管我们看到目前中国对新兴市场国家的出口仍然维持一定增速，但新兴市场的出口整体比例仍然较低，短时间内很难指望占据主导地位；而美国经济虽然不错，美国的经济恢复来自于其内部制造业的恢复等因素，因此对中国出口的拉动作用也不能太指望；而对日本、欧盟两大贸易伙伴的出口出现较大下滑，尤其是欧债危机的影响，似乎无论欧债危机如何演绎，继续恶化或者以紧缩的形式来拯救，对于中国相应出口需求的恢复都很难指望上。

The question now is almost impossible to make a difference,Although we see at present China's emerging market countries export still maintain a certain growth,But emerging market exports integral scale is still lower,Within a short period of time can hardly hope to occupy the leading position;But the American economy while good,The American economic recovery from its internal manufacturing recovery factor,So on China's export pull role also cannot too expect;But to Japan/The two largest trading partner of the export decline appear larger,Especially the influence of European debt crisis,Seems no matter how to deduce the debt crisis,Continue to deteriorate or in the form of tightening to save,For China's export demand corresponding recovery were difficult to look.

　　而劳动力等成本具备相当的刚性，在人口拐点出现以后，除非经济继续下行到相当恶劣的程度，大量失业出现，否则难以有效缓解这一压力。

And such as labor cost have quite rigid,In the inflection point after appearing,Unless the economy continues to descending to the extent of the extremely poor,A large number of unemployment appeared,Otherwise it is difficult to effectively relieve the pressure.

　　关于汇率的问题，我们一直认为，还是可以动些脑筋的。我们看到，目前中国的一些优势消失的出口行业，比如造船企业的报价高出韩国7%，纺织服装、玩具等加工的生产成本大幅高于东南亚国家和印度；但我们同时发现，08年以来，人民币对韩元、印度卢比、泰铢等大幅升值，达到40%-80%。可以说，汇率升值给中国企业带来的压力远远超过劳动力等要素成本的因素，这才是产业向海外转移的首要原因。即使中国内部出口结构调整，部分产业转向中西部等国内要素价格相对较低的区域，也几乎完全无法弥补汇率的负面影响。

About the problem of exchange rate,We always think that,Can still move some of the brain.We see,At present China's some advantages disappear export industry,Such as shipbuilding enterprise offer 7% higher than the South Korea,Textile clothing/Toys processing production costs are higher than other countries in southeast Asia and India;But we also found,08 years,RMB to won/The rupee/The baht to rise sharply, etc,40% - 80%.Can say,Exchange rate appreciation to the Chinese enterprise to bring the pressure than elements such as labor cost factors,This is the industry to overseas the leading cause of transfer.Even if China internal export structure adjustment,Part of the industry to the Midwest elements such as domestic prices relatively low area,And almost impossible to compensate for the negative effects of exchange rate.

　　因此我们认为，当下适当考虑汇率政策来扶持出口，是政策决策层值得考虑的重要选项。

So we think,Then due consideration exchange rate policy to support export,Policy decision-making is an important option is worth considering.

　　当然，也有很多人担心贬值的负面影响，比如外资流出的势头也许会更加剧烈。最新的数据显示，二季度资本和金融项目的逆差达到412多亿美元，净误差和遗漏项逆差242亿美元，在经常项目仍然有537亿美元顺差的情况下，国际储备资产减少118亿美元。

Of course,Also has many people worry that the devaluation of the negative influence,Such as foreign capital outflow momentum may be more severe.The latest figures show,The second quarter capital and financial project deficit to more than $412,Net errors and omissions item deficit of $24.2 billion,In the current account surplus still has $53.7 billion of the cases,International reserve assets to reduce 11.8 billion dollars.

　　我们认为，只要有贬值预期，那么资本流出的势头就不可避免，如果硬扛着汇率或者小幅缓慢贬值，反而会加剧外资流出的势头。正如当年小幅升值时，升的越慢外资流入越多，硬压住汇率外资流入更多。

We think,As long as there is depreciation expected,So the trend of capital outflow is inevitable,If hard carried rate or small slow devaluation,But will aggravate the foreign capital outflow momentum.As the small appreciation,Litres of the slower the more the inflow of foreign direct investment,Hard pin exchange rate of foreign capital inflow more.

　　如果进一步放开汇率波动幅度，顺应外资流出的势头，任由汇率出现短期较大幅度的贬值；不仅出口的压力会得到很大缓解，在贬值预期迅速释放完毕之后，准备流出的外资恐怕也会重新评估。当然，国内的物价水平、进口企业的压力等受到贬值负面影响的因素，就需要决策层权衡利弊了。

If further open exchange rate fluctuation range,Conform to the trend of foreign capital outflow,Let the exchange rate in a short-term declines in the dollar;Not only export pressure will get great ease,In the depreciation expected quickly after the release,I'm afraid to outflow of foreign investment will reassess.Of course,The domestic price level/Import enterprise pressure by depreciation negative factors,Will need to weigh the pros and cons for decision-making.

　　中国制造的产业升级不可能一蹴而就，高附加值产品必然和欧美形成短兵相接，贸易摩擦不可能避免。成本的竞争在现阶段是无法回避的，考虑到劳动力等成本相对刚性，除了更加灵活的汇率政策之外，恐怕没有其他办法可以重新赢回中国制造在国际分工中的比较优势。

China's manufacturing industry upgrade could not accomplish in one move,High value-added products inevitable and Europe and the United States formed foot to foot,Trade friction could not avoid.The cost of competition at the present stage is unable to avoid,Considering such as labor cost relative rigidity,In addition to a more flexible exchange rate policy besides,I'm afraid there is no other way to win back made in China in the international division of labor in the comparative advantage.