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张鸣:打贸易战恐怕是一场灾难--亲民维稳网络舆情监测室
2012-09-30

这个问题弄的更大弄成群众运动其实不应该,本身钓鱼岛就是一个外交事件就是一个领土纠纷,在这个世界上有这种纠纷的国家很多。外交事件我觉得作为领土纠纷应该用一个相对专业的领域去考虑。我觉得把购岛底线反映这么强烈也有点问题,这个事情还是谈判解决或者外交层面解决,不要弄成群众运动,这个是不明智的。我是研究历史的,五四的时候我们认为我们外交太失败,于是我们就开展了一场全民运动,整个学生都在反日游行,都在抵制日货,抵制了大概一年多,几乎中国每个城市都在抵制日货,当时的观点也是如此,只要我们不买日本的货日本就完了,跟现在一样一样。后来我查了查,1919年中日贸易额不仅没有下降反而上升了,我非常奇怪,抵制日货没有效果。我不懂中日贸易影响多大,生活中到处都是日货或者中日合资产品,或者双方之间在各种各样方面都可以看到互相存在着痕迹的时候,我觉得打贸易战恐怕是一场灾难。 The problem of get more get into a mass movement in fact should not,Itself diaoyu islands is a diplomatic event is a territorial dispute,In this world there are disputes over country a lot of.Diplomatic event I think as a territorial dispute should use a relative professional in the field to consider.I think the bottom line for island reflect so strong also have a problem,The things or negotiations to resolve the diplomatic level or solve,Don't get into a mass movement,This is not wise.I am study history,The May 4th movement when we think we diplomatic too failure,So we carried out a national movement,The students are in the day parade,In a boycott of Japanese goods,Boycotted the probably more than a year,Almost every city in China in a boycott of Japanese goods,The viewpoint is also so,As long as we don't buy Japanese goods Japan it is finished,As with the same as they are now.Then I checked,1919 years trade, did not fall but rise,I'm very surprised that,Boycott Japanese goods no effect.I don't understand how much influence sino-japanese trade,Life was full of Japanese goods or sino-japanese joint venture products,Between the parties or in various aspects can see each other when there are trace,I think playing trade war I'm afraid is a disaster.

  这个事情把它闹大,如果你想把它闹大把它彰显出来,你得有本钱有预案,钓鱼岛问题不是一天产生的,应该说四十几年前就应该有一个预案,但是我觉得中国方面没这个谱,就等、拖,拖好了,拖到最后可能我觉得时间并不在我们这边。想打没本钱,你说想谈又谈不拢,又不愿意把这个提交给国际法庭去裁判仲裁,只好拖。一旦日本方面有什么动作,我们就非常被动,后来连妇联、工会都出来说话了。爱国青年上街了,把日本的车砸了,店铺也砸了,北京还好,我们那个哥儿们的日系车还没被砸,砸那些有什么用?砸了日本的店铺我们要赔钱,砸了中国的车你要担责任,跟日本人有什么关系呢?跟日本有什么关系?群众运动再不收就麻烦大了,就不是经济问题了,各种问题全出来了,但是游行是收了,群众运动看起来也平息了,但是这个台阶还没下。我就奇怪了,是谁把我们弄台上去了呢?他下不了台。军事仗不能打,经济仗不能打,那么我们干吗要闹呢?弄完我们还要妥协,那不是我们自己丢人吗?这个很不值得。

The things make it big,If you want to make it big put it manifested,You must have a plan for capital,Diaoyu islands problem is not a day of produce,It should be said in their years ago should have a plan,But I think China didn't this spectrum,As soon as/drag,Tow good,Tow to the last may I think time is not on our side.Want to play no capital,You want to talk and talk about not approach,They are not willing to put this submitted to the international court of arbitration to the referee,Had to drag.Once Japan have what action,We will very passive,Then even the women's federation/Trade union came out to talk.Patriotic youth go shopping,The Japanese car smashed,Shop also hit the,Beijing also good,We are the buddy of Japanese have not yet been hit,Hit those who have what use?Hit the Japanese shop we will lose money,Hit the Chinese car you have to bear the responsibility,With the Japanese have what relation?And Japan have what relation?The mass movement don't accept is in big trouble,Is not economic problem,Various problems all out,But the parade is accepted,The mass movement seems to calm,But the steps haven't next.I was strange,Who we get on the stage to now?He is not the table.Military battle can't play,Economic battle can't play,So why do we want to make it?Finished we have to compromise,That's not our own a shame?It's not worth it.



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