德黑兰，一名街头货币兑换商将钞票装入塑料袋。 

Tehran,A street money changer will money into plastic bags. 

　　一周货币狂贬40% 伊进入货币战伏击圈？

A week monetary crazy almost 40% Iraq into the currency war ambush ring?

　　连日来，受西方制裁影响，伊朗货币里亚尔大幅贬值40%，里亚尔兑美元汇率上周一跌至1：33500的历史低点。伊朗国内物价飞涨。

For the last few days,Influenced by the western sanctions influence,Iran's monetary riyal the substantial depreciation of 40%,Riyal the dollar fell last week to 1:33500 historical lows.Iran's domestic soaring prices.

　　不安的伊朗民众纷纷买进硬通货，导致里亚尔持续承压。而在伊朗黑市上，1美元可兑换3.2万至4万里亚尔，这与伊朗央行官方汇率1美元兑换12260里亚尔相去甚远。

Unrest in Iran people buy hard currency,Lead to rial continuous confined.And in Iran on the black market,$1 convertible 32000 to 40000 riyal,The central bank official exchange rate with Iran 1 dollar 12260 riyal far.

　　据悉，去年底至今年初，美国和欧洲宣布对伊朗施加严厉制裁，矛头指向石油部门和银行业，导致里亚尔大幅贬值。今年以来，伊朗货币已累计贬值约60%。

It is reported,Since late last year at the beginning,The United States and Europe announced tough sanctions on Iran,Pointing at oil and banking department,Lead to rial depreciated.Since this year,Iran's currency has accumulated depreciation about 60%.

　　伊朗首都德黑兰部分商店已关门歇业。一些店主说，汇率不稳让他们难以为商品标价，关店是因为不知道汇率将如何变化。

Tehran has closed off part of the store.Some shopkeeper said,Exchange rate instability make them difficult to price for goods,Shut up shop because don't know how will exchange rate change.

　　美国约翰斯·霍普金斯大学教授史蒂夫·汉克说，根据对伊朗黑市汇率的分析结果，目前伊朗的物价每40天上涨一倍，这不仅耗尽普通伊朗人的存款，也耗尽了他们的购买力，尤其在城市中。

The Johns Hopkins university professor Steve hanke says,According to the results of analysis of Iran's black market exchange rate,Iran prices doubled every 40 days,This not only run out of ordinary iranians deposit,Also spent their purchasing power,Especially in the city.

　　受此影响的还有航空公司，来自亚航长途公司8日的消息表明，受货币波动影响，将暂停其伊朗航线服务，目前每周4班的吉隆坡至德黑兰航线将在10月14日后停止服务。

Affected by this and airlines,From the air long distance company 8 news show,By currency fluctuations,Will suspend their Iran route service,At present weekly class 4 Kuala Lumpur route to Tehran on October 14 stop service in the future.

　　就伊朗货币进入快速贬值通道，有部分国际观察家认为，伊朗陷入美国"货币战"伏击圈，货币的巨幅振荡将重创伊朗经济和政治，但不能忽视的是，伊朗的经济振荡在国际间的传导作用，中东经济振荡加剧，全球是否会被拖入泥潭有待观察。

Iran's money into rapid devaluation channel,Some international observers think,Iran into the United States"Currency war"Ambush ring,Currency huge oscillation will hit Iran's economic and political,But can't ignore,Iran's economic oscillation in international conduction effect,The Middle East economic oscillation aggravate,Global will be dragged into mire remains to be seen.

　　1

1

　　伊朗每天损失达6300万美元

Iran every loss of us $63 million

　　"我的大多数顾客都只是从窗外看一眼商品，然后就离开。我看见他们去了附近的面包店，全家人都靠吃面包生活。"一位伊朗的肉铺老板形容，不断下滑的经济让肉类变成奢侈品，伊朗的经济困难已深入到几乎每个伊朗家庭。

"Most of my customers are from the window to see a glimpse of goods,Then leave.I saw them go to the nearby the bakery,The whole family eat bread."An Iranian butcher shop boss describe,Continuously declining economic let the meat into luxury,Iran's economic difficulties has already gone deep into almost every Iran's family.

　　今年6月28日，《美国国防授权法案》正式生效。法案规定，除得到豁免的国家外，任何国家与伊朗继续进行石油交易的金融机构将受到美国的制裁。7月1日，欧盟对伊朗石油禁运也正式生效。

On June 28 this year,,[U.S. defense authorization bill]Formally went into effect.law,In addition to get the exemption from out of the country,Any country and Iran continues to traded financial institutions will be U.S. sanctions.On July 1,,The European Union to Iran's oil embargo also formally went into effect.

　　7月31日，美国政府又宣布了两项制裁伊朗的新措施：对伊朗能源和石化机构进行新一轮制裁，对与这些企业进行交易的机构进行制裁。

On July 31,,The U.S. government announced two new measures to sanctions against Iran:For Iran's energy and petrochemical mechanism of a new round of sanctions,With the enterprise trade sanctions against institutions.

　　制裁的效果已初步显现。据美方统计，伊朗每天的原油出口量已经降低至180万桶，而制裁前伊朗原本每天出口原油250万桶，伊朗因此每天损失达到6300万美元。

The effect of the sanctions has been revealed.According to us statistics,Iran's daily oil exports have already reduced to 1.8 million barrels,And before sanctions against Iran was every day 2.5 million barrels of crude oil exports,Iran so every loss $63 million.

　　一波接一波的制裁，使伊朗面临经济困境。联合国秘书长潘基文称："对伊朗的制裁，引发了伊朗国内通货膨胀、失业率上升和其他一些问题。"

A wave after wave of sanctions,Make Iran is facing financial difficulties.The United Nations secretary-general ban ki-moon said:"Sanctions against Iran,Triggered Iran's domestic inflation/Rising unemployment and other problems."

　　"货币贬值正是因为经济制裁，而且制裁在短期内对伊朗经济会产生很大影响。"针对上周出现的里亚尔大幅贬值现象，厦门大学中国能源经济研究中心主任林伯强认为：石油出口是伊朗最大的经济来源，而持续的针对石油部门的经济制裁，不仅掐断了国民经济的重大收入来源，而且会让伊朗经济深陷泥潭。

"Currency devaluation just because of economic sanctions,In the short term and sanctions on Iran's economy will have a great influence."According to the riyal appeared last week the substantial depreciation of phenomenon,Xiamen university, China's energy economic research center director LinBoJiang think:Oil exports is Iran's largest source of income,And continued on petroleum department economic sanctions,Not only cut off the national economy important source of income,And will make Iran's economy get bogged down.

　　中国社会科学院西亚非洲所研究员殷罡却持另一种观点。他认为，此前伊朗施行的"石油复兴计划"过分注重核技术、重工业等行业的发展，忽视轻工业、石油生产和加工等发展，造成经济发展不平衡，已为经济发展埋下祸根。而国际社会针对伊朗的一系列制裁措施，则进一步加剧了伊朗经济发展的困难。

The Chinese academy of social sciences researcher at the Asia Africa YanGang but hold another view.He thinks,After the enforcement of Iran"Oil recovery program"Excessive pay attention to nuclear technology/The development of heavy industry, etc,Ignore light industry/Oil production and processing and development,Economic development caused by unbalanced,For economic development has buried an apple of discord.And the international community a series of sanctions against Iran,Is further increased the difficulty of Iran's economic development.

　　2

2

　　对经济影响不在伊朗一国

The economic influence not in Iranian one country

　　作为全球第二大石油出口国，伊朗的政治、经济问题不仅影响国际油价走势，而且影响着整个中东地区的和平与稳定。

As the world's second largest oil exporter,Iran's political/Economic problems not only affects the international oil price movements,And affects the entire Middle East regional peace and stability.

　　据外媒报道，伊朗国家石化公司总经理A·巴亚特称，伊朗伊历新年上半年共出口价值60亿美元的石化产品，由于伊朗计划在本年度内把本国石化产品产量增加500万吨达到4900万吨，伊朗的石化产品出口收入预计到本伊朗历年结束前(2013年3月)将达到150多亿美元。

According to the media reported,Iran's national petrochemical company general manager a. and yates says,Iran the calendar year a total of $6 billion in the first half of the export of petrochemical products,Because Iran plan within the year in the domestic petrochemical product yield increase of 5 million tons to 49 million tons,Iran's petrochemical products export income is expected to the Iran before the end of the calendar year(In march of 2013)Will reach more than $150.

　　据伊朗国家石化工业的一名官员所说，全球对伊朗石油工业实施的经济制裁并没有取得效果。许多国家已提交订单进口伊朗的石化产品。

According to Iran's national petrochemical industry a officials said,Global to Iran's oil industry the economic sanctions have not achieved effect.Many countries have submitted order import Iran's petrochemical products.

　　殷罡也认为伊朗的经济动荡对中东地区局势发展几乎没有影响。一方面，伊朗在石油出口和产能上都在萎缩，在石油产量上已被伊拉克超越。另一方面，像突尼斯、埃及之类的突变不会在伊朗发生。

YanGang also think Iran's economic turbulence in the Middle East situation development almost no influence.On the one hand,In Iran's oil exports and productivity are in atrophy,In the oil production has been beyond Iraq.On the other hand,Like Tunisia/Egypt and so on mutation will not happen in Iran.

　　林伯强认为，在短期内，中东的石油出口国可能从因伊朗问题持续升级而导致的油价高涨中获利；但从长远来看，伊朗问题的升级、国内通货膨胀的加剧可能导致国家甚至地区的动乱，对中东地区来讲，其损失是石油利润不能弥补的。

LinBoJiang think,In the short term,The Middle East oil exporters from Iran may be because of the continued to upgrade the high price of profit;But in the long run,Iran upgrade/Domestic of inflation may lead to the country or the region unrest,Will tell to the Middle East,The loss is oil profits irretrievable.

　　因此，国际社会倾向于对伊朗保持比较温和的态度，"伊朗问题对全球经济的影响不在伊朗一国，而在于伊朗问题在中东地区引起的动乱。"

therefore,The international community tend to keep Iran to the relatively mild attitude,"Iran the impact on the global economy of one country in Iran,But in Iran in the Middle East cause unrest."

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3

　　中国能源储备

China's energy reserves

　　正走向多元

Is moving toward multiple

　　据伊朗国家石化工业的一名官员透露，全球对伊朗石油工业实施的经济制裁并没有取得效果，许多国家已提交订单进口伊朗的石化产品。那么，针对伊朗的一系列制裁对中国的石油储备将有何影响？

According to Iran's national petrochemical industry a official,Global to Iran's oil industry the economic sanctions have not achieved effect,Many countries have submitted order import Iran's petrochemical products.so,A series of sanctions against Iran for China's oil reserves will have any influence?

　　对此，林伯强认为中国石油储备处于艰难的困境。一方面，中国要考虑国际大环境，适量储备来自伊朗的石油。另一方面，如果当下储备价格很高，现在不储备，今后储备压力更高。

this,LinBoJiang think that China's petroleum reserve a difficult dilemma.On the one hand,China should consider the international environment,Moderate reserve from Iran's oil.On the other hand,If the stock price is very high,Now don't reserve,The future reserve pressure higher.

　　但殷罡认为，中国早已做好减少伊朗石油进口的准备。刘卫东也认为，中国石油储备正逐步走向多元，一些国家针对伊朗石油部门的制裁对中国石油储备的影响几乎为零。

But YanGang think,China already to reduce oil imports to Iran.Andrew sobel also think,China's oil reserves are gradually moving towards the multivariate,Some countries in Iran's oil department sanctions on China's petroleum reserve influence is almost zero.

　　商务部国际贸易经济合作研究院研究员梅新育也表示伊朗的经济形势对中国能源储备影响不大。他认为，从总体看，天然气在中国能源储备中所占份额越来越大，而中国天然气进口大多来自俄罗斯、土库曼斯坦甚至澳大利亚，进口来源已相对多元。

The ministry of commerce international trade and economic cooperation research institute researcher MeiXinYu also said Iran's economic situation on China's energy reserves the impact is not big.He thinks,From overall see,Natural gas in China's energy reserves, share is more and more big,And China's gas imports mostly from Russia/Turkmenistan and even Australia,Import source has relative multivariate.