在经历了1年多的下跌行情煎熬后，焦炭行业终于拨云见雾。

After more than a year of plunge after suffering,Coke industry finally dial the clouds to see the fog.

　　“去年11月份以来，受楼市回暖和钢厂产能释放影响，焦炭市场逐渐回暖。同时，取消焦炭出口税政策已于今年1月1日起实行，也为山东焦化行业带来利好。”山东省焦化行业协会副秘书长郭玲玲日前接受经济导报记者采访时表示。

"Since November last year,Affected by market thaw and steel plant production release,Coke market gradually warmer.At the same time,Cancel coke export tax policy has set up a file in January 1,Also bring good for shandong coking industry."Shandong coking industry association deputy secretary-general GuoLingLing before economic intergration reporter interview said.

　　需求增加

Increasing demand

　　此前，焦炭行情已连续下跌1年有余，价格最低时比国际金融危机时还要低。

The previous,Coke market has been down more than 1 year,The lowest price, even lower than the international financial crisis.

　　据郭玲玲介绍，2011年下半年以来，受国内外宏观经济走势影响，焦化行业下游钢铁市场低迷，山东焦炭市场面临的危机不断加剧。去年9月份焦炭价格跌至底部，当时山东二级冶金焦价格为1250元/吨，跌幅达35%以上；多数企业限产幅度在30%-50%。

Introduce according to GuoLingLing,Since the second half of 2011,Affected by macroeconomic trends at home and abroad,Coking industry in the downstream steel market downturn,Shandong coke market facing the growing crisis.Last year in September, coke prices fell to the bottom,At shandong secondary metallurgical coke prices for 1250 yuan/ton,More than 35% decline;Most enterprise effects in 30% 50%.

　　“回暖大约从去年10月开始，至今，山东地区一级冶金焦价格保持在1580元-1630元/吨之间。其中去年11月份涨势较大，每吨涨了200元。这在冬季焦炭消费淡季是较为罕见的。”卓创资讯焦炭份析师张源告诉导报记者，焦炭市场自去年步入调整期，价格跌幅位居所有工业品之首，随后追随其他工业品展开了一波反弹行情。

"Warmer about since October last year,So far,In shandong district level of metallurgical coke prices keep between 1580-1630 yuan/ton.The gains in November last year,Rose 200 yuan per ton.The coke consumption in winter off-season is relatively rare."Zhuo and information of coke formation division modifiers controls told reporters following the newsletter,Coke market since last year into adjustment period,Price drop in all industrial products,Then follow other industrial products launched a wave of rebound.

　　张源表示，焦炭走出这波反弹行情的主要原因，一方面是前期跌幅较深，利空因素已充分释放；另一方面，整个煤钢产业链确实存在回暖预期。冬季用煤高峰导致煤炭资源紧张，煤价始终处于高位，焦炭货源偏紧，钢厂需求气氛很好，多种因素推动了焦炭行业回暖。

Modifiers controls said,The main cause of coke out of the wave rallies,On the one hand is early fall deeper,Bad factors has been addressed and released in full;On the other hand,The coal and steel industry chain is warmer.Peak winter use of coal in coal resources,Coal prices remain high,Coke supply tight,Steel demand atmosphere is very good,Many factors promote the coke industry warmed.

　　郭玲玲也告诉导报记者，国内中小煤矿普遍停产整顿，焦炭市场资源偏紧，多数钢厂上调了焦炭的采购价格，对于焦炭的补库需求依然强烈，从而提振焦炭价格稳中有升。焦炭企业的库存压力也明显减轻，出货比较顺畅，盈利状况得到改善，有进一步增加产能的意愿。

GuoLingLing also told reporters following the newsletter,Domestic small and medium-sized coal mines is discontinued,Coke market resources tight,Many steel mills raised the purchase price of coke,Demand for coke of library is still strong,So as to boost coke prices are.Coke enterprise inventory pressure will reduce obviously,The shipment more smoothly,Improved profitability,A further increase productivity.

　　“由于下游市场需求较好，钢厂采购积极，近期山东地区的焦化厂开工率普遍比较高，基本保持在七成至八成以上，鲁南部分焦企处于满负荷开工。从当前市场趋势看，近期焦炭需求仍将有所改观，市场将继续向好发展。”郭玲玲表示。

"Due to the downstream market demand is better,Steel mills purchasing positive,The coking plant of shandong area starts generally higher in the near future,Basic in seventy percent to eighty percent,Southern shandong part of coke enterprises start at full load.From the current market trends,Coke demand will change in the near future,The market will continue to be going well."GuoLingLing said.

　　有限利好

Limited positive

　　1日起取消40%焦炭出口关税的政策，也给上升期的焦炭行业带来利好。“此前受制于高额关税的山东焦化企业有望借机增加出口。”郭玲玲说。

1, 40% of coke export tariff policy,Also bring benefit to stage the coke industry."Previously subject to high tariffs of shandong coking enterprise is looking to increase exports."GuoLingLing said.

　　据了解，相对于山东焦炭巨大的产量，焦炭出口所占份额并不大。在2009年焦炭出口关税提升前，山东口岸焦炭出口最高时接近50万吨，主要出口到巴西、印度等国。此后陷于停滞。

It is understood,Relative to the shandong coke huge output,Coke export share is not big.Before coke export tariffs promoted in 2009,Shandong port coke export highest when close to 500000 tons,Main exports to Brazil/Countries such as India.Since stagnating.

　　全国亦然。数据显示，去年前11个月中，焦炭出口量仅为96万吨，同比大幅下降了70%左右，出口量仅占焦炭产量的0.2%。

The vice versa.Data showed that,Before 11 months of last year,Coke exports only for 960000 tons,Year-on-year fell sharply 70%,Exports account for only 0.2% of coke production.

　　张源认为，焦炭关税取消以后，国内焦炭出口价格优势将得到提升。同时，目前国内焦炭市场面临的最大问题――产能过剩，以及供需矛盾突出的问题，有望借此得到缓解。

Modifiers controls that,After coke tariffs to cancel,Domestic coke export price advantage will get promoted.At the same time,At present domestic coke market - the biggest problems facing the excess capacity,As well as the contradiction between supply and demand,Is expected to ease.

　　不过，“如果今年国家焦炭出口配额仍为900万吨，即使配额全部用完，焦炭出口量也仅增加800万吨，占国内焦炭总产量的2%左右，对于国内产能严重过剩的市场而言，提振有限。”张源说。

but,"If this state of coke export quotas still for 9 million tons,Even if the quota all run out,Coke exports is only an increase of 8 million tons,About 2% of total domestic coke production,For serious excess capacity of the market in China,Boost limited."Modifiers controls said.

　　张源预测，当前国内焦炭市场的整体环境有了好转。从后市来看，由于整个冬季供应将难以跟上，加之今年一季度以后进入传统钢材消费旺季，预期焦炭和钢材价格仍有反弹空间。

Modifiers controls prediction,The overall environment of the current domestic coke market has improved.From the point of view is,Because the entire winter supplies will be hard pressed to keep up with,And in the first quarter of this year after entering traditional steel consumption peak season,Coke and expected steel prices still have rebounded space.