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中国大米进口激增影响全球--亲稳舆论引导监测室
2013-01-09

  中国2012年大米进口量大幅攀升。《华尔街日报》8日援引美国农业部的数据称,中国2012年进口精米260万吨,进口量创历史新高,较2011年的57.5万吨大幅增长。在过去50年中,中国仅有4年是大米净进口国。数十年来,中国持续增长的大米产量使得中国的出口量远超进口量

China's rice imports sharply in 2012.[The Wall Street journal]8 quoted according to the U.S. department of agriculture,China imported 2.6 million tons of paddy in 2012,Imports a record,A sharp increase on 575000 tons in 2011.Over the past 50 years,China is only four years net importer of rice.In the past decades,The rice output of China's continued growth that China's exports far above imports.

  彭博社8日称,中国是全球最大的大米生产国和消费国。美国农业部数据显示,2012年中国大米产量为1.43亿吨,消费量则达到1.44亿吨,成为世界第二大大米进口国,而2011年中国仅为排名第18的大米进口国。彭博社上个月称,联合国粮农组织表示,中国政府提高农民收入的政策推高了国内大米价格,2012年中国大米进口量可能飙升4倍,达到230万吨到240万吨。美国农业部估计,中国2012年有望成为大米净进口国,2013年,中国需求量比产量高出100万吨,仍将进口大量大米。

Bloomberg 8 say,China is the world's largest rice producer and consumer.The United States department of agriculture data shows,In 2012, the Chinese rice yield is 143 million tons,Consumption is 144 million tons,Become the world's second largest importer of rice,In 2011 China is only ranked 18 rice importer.Bloomberg said last month,The United Nations food and agriculture organization said,The policy of the Chinese government to raise farmers' income pushing up the price of rice in China,In 2012, the Chinese rice imports may soar 4 times,Reach 2.3 million tons to 2.4 million tons.The United States department of agriculture,China in 2012 is expected to become a net importer of rice,In 2013,,China's demand for higher than production 1 million tons,Will import a lot of rice.

  由于大多数大米消费国也是大规模的产米国,这使得大米的全球贸易量仅占总产量的很小一部分。联合国粮农组织公布,2012年大米贸易量仅为3730万吨,占全球供应量的7.7%。因此中国大规模进口大米,对全球大米贸易产生巨大影响。泰国一直是中国最大大米进口来源,但该趋势去年发生变化。由于泰国国内实行大米收购政策,导致大米价格高涨,越南、巴基斯坦和印度等国的大米价格更具竞争力。据彭博社报道,2012年前十个月,中国进口的200万吨大米中有143万吨来自越南。

Since most rice consumer also mass production of rice,This makes the global trade volume accounted for only a small fraction of the total output of rice.The United Nations food and agriculture organization released,In 2012 rice trade only for 37.3 million tons,Accounted for 7.7% of global supply.Therefore China's large-scale imports of the rice,Tremendous impact on world trade in rice.Thailand has always been China's largest source of rice imports,But the trend change happened last year.Due to the Thailand rice purchase policy in China,Rice prices high,Vietnam/Pakistan and India and other countries more competitive than the price of rice.Bloomberg reported,Ten months 2012 years ago,China imported 2 million tons of 2 million tons of rice there from Vietnam.

  对于中国突然大举增加大米进口量,道琼斯通讯社称,一些分析师表示,推动因素是中国消费者需求的大幅增长,这可能引发人们对于大米产量能否满足需求的担心。另一些人则认为,中国政府设定的大米价格远高于全球市场同级别大米。这就使那些在越南、巴基斯坦和印度等国收购大米的中国进口商有利可图,他们可以以更高价格在国内市场出售这些进口大米。中国现在基本上有两个分裂的市场,农民向政府出售大米,而消费者则从海外购买大米。这导致政府购买的大米很多都被储藏起来,而不是用于加工和消费。一旦内外价差收窄,进口量就会回落。彭博社认为,由于中国市场并没有出现大米短缺的现象,大米加工商增加进口大米主要是为了从国内外价差中获取利润。联合国粮农组织去年9月的数据显示,中国湖北籼稻价格在2012年前9个月上涨11%,达到每吨625美元,与此相比,越南出口的最贵大米品种5%碎米率大米的价格仅为每吨451美元,泰国此类品种价格为每吨598美元。 报道称,今年中国将加大对农民的补贴,因此预计中国2013年大米进口量将下降。

In China all of a sudden huge increase rice imports,The dow Jones news agency said,Some analysts say,Push factor is a significant increase in the consumer demand in China,This may cause concern of rice production can meet demand.Other people think,The Chinese government sets the price of rice is much higher than the global market with level of rice.This makes those who are in Vietnam/Countries such as Pakistan and India buy rice importer profitable in China,They can sell at a higher price in the domestic market the imported rice.China now there are basically two division of the market,Farmers to sell the rice,While consumers buy rice from overseas.This leads to the government to buy a lot of rice were stored,But not in processing and consumption.Once the internal and external spreads narrow,Imports will fall.Bloomberg thinks,Due to the shortage of Chinese market and no rice,Rice processors increase import rice is mainly in order to profit from the price at home and abroad.The United Nations food and agriculture organization last September figures show,China's hubei rice prices rose 11% in the first nine months of 2012,$625 per ton,Compared with the,Vietnam's most expensive rice varieties of broken rice rate in rice 5% price only $451 per ton,Thailand such variety price of $598 per ton. Reports say,This year China will increase subsidies to farmers,So China is expected to 2013 rice imports will decline.



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