在近日于上海举办的复旦大学管理学院“蓝墨水”新年论坛上，德意志银行董事总经理马骏在接受记者采访时表示，企业利润正在恢复正常，会产生新的投资冲动，同时中国的出口也有望恢复，预计今年上半年同比GDP增长会恢复到8%，下半年会到8.5%，明年上半年的某个时点可能会触及到9%。

In the recently held in Shanghai fudan university school of management"Blue ink"The New Year on the BBS,Deutsche bank director general manager a fair when accepting a reporter to interview said,Corporate profits are returned to normal,Will produce new investment impulse,At the same time, China's exports is expected to recover,In the first half of this year is expected to year-on-year GDP growth will resume to 8%,In the second half of the will to 8.5%,The first half of next year a point may touch to 9%.

　　谈GDP：

Talk about GDP:

　　记者：对今年中国的经济形势如何看？

reporter:This year China's economic situation how to see?

　　马骏：我估计今年上半年同比GDP增长会恢复到8%，下半年会达到8.5%，明年上半年的某个时点可能会触及到9%，很多人不同意，说可能到8.5就停住了。

A fair:I estimate that in the first half of this year compared to 8% GDP growth will resume,Second half could be as high as 8.5%,The first half of next year a point may touch to 9%,Many people don't agree,Said it could to 8.5 to a stop.

　　企业利润正在恢复正常将是推动经济发展的一大原因。根据我们的测算，消化过剩产能的过程基本结束，产能的利用率可以恢复市场，这会导致企业的单位成本下降，企业的利润恢复。一旦利润恢复正常，企业就会有投资的冲动。

Corporate profits are returned to normal will promote the development of economy is one of the reasons.According to our calculation,The process of digestion overcapacity basic end,Capacity utilization can restore market,This will lead to enterprise unit cost down,Enterprise's profit recovery.Once the profit return to normal,Enterprise will have the impulse of investment.

　　另外，出口作为一个复苏的动力，全球主要看美国和欧洲，美国估计下半年情况会好一点，因为上半年还面临一个债务上限的问题，下半年很大的问题被解决了，欧洲一季度以前还是负增长，但是二季度就会进入环比的正增长。

In addition,Export as a recovery of power,Global basically see the United States and Europe,The United States estimates that half of the year will be better,In the first half because also faces a debt limit problem,In the second half of the big problem is solved,Before the European quarter or negative growth,But the second quarter will enter the link of positive growth.

　　谈房价：

Talk about prices:

　　记者：去年最后一个季度一线城市的房价出现了上涨，您觉得2013年房地产市场的趋势会是什么样的？

reporter:The last quarter of last year a line city house prices rising appeared,You like the 2013 real estate market trend will be what kind of?

　　马骏：我想一个是分化，就是大城市面临比较强的上涨压力，大城市现在的存货已经降到了5~6个月，正常的存货是10个月，但是有些二线城市还是非常的高，两到三年，存货高的上涨不起来，存货低的有上涨压力，政府管控的压力会加码，怎么管控呢？在现有的基础上加大实施的力度，比如说限购令，限购令很多细节的东西可以掌握，如果实在不行的话，可以考虑在金融政策方面稍微紧一点，比如说现在你的按揭可以提供20%的一个折扣，以后会不会减少一点，提到10%左右，这些都是可预期的政策，但是这些政策不会在全国一刀切的进行，很可能会针对具体地方的房价反弹的情况，有选择地进行。

A fair:I think one is differentiation,Is the big city is facing strong upward pressure,Big cities are now in stock has fallen to 5 ~ 6 months,Normal inventory is ten months,But some second-tier cities is very high,Two to three years,Inventory high rise not to rise,Inventory low pressure is rising,Government control of the pressure will be extra,How to control??On the existing basis increase the strength of implementation,For instance is restricted to,Be restricted to a lot of details of things can be master,If there is no words,In the financial policy can be considered a little a bit tight,For example, your mortgage can offer a discount of 20%,Later will be reduced a little,Mentioned by about 10%,These are predictable policy,But these policies will not in the country of one size fits all,Probably for the specific local prices rebound,Selectively to.