2012年全球贸易增速将不及前20年平均值的一半，贸易量的变动低于全球经济增长的步伐，全球贸易面临下行风险……根据中国社科院世界经济课题组的初步测算，2012年全球货物贸易增长率仅会维持在2.5%~3.0%之间，而2013年全球贸易将会以4%~4.5%的增速发展。

In 2012, global trade growth will not equal to the first half of the average twenty years,Trade volume changes below the pace of global economic growth,Global trade faced downside risks...According to the Chinese academy of world economic review preliminary estimates,In 2012, world trade in goods growth will remain only between 2.5% ~ 3.0%,And in 2013 the global trade will with 4% ~ 4.5% growth development.

　　该课题组从4个方面分析了全球贸易增速进一步放缓的原因。第一，国际航运指标的变化。课题组主要通过国际航运市场情况加以判断，国际航运市场情况又可以通过波罗的海干散货综合运价指数（BDI）和国际集装箱指数进行分析。从BDI指数可以看出，自2011年底该指数就出现了较大幅度的下降。2012年以来，没有出现显著回升。此外，国际集装箱指数从2011年7月的近792点，滑落到2011年12月的近499点，再震荡到2012年6月的502点。可以判断，体现全球贸易流量的国际运输市场集装箱运价指数走势，正显示出国际贸易增长放缓的趋势。

This research analyzed from four aspects of global trade growth slow further reasons.The first,International shipping index change.Through the research of the international shipping market situation to judge,The international shipping market situation and can through the Baltic dry bulk comprehensive freight index(BDI)And the international container index are used for analysis.Can be seen from the BDI index,Since the end of 2011 the index will appear a substantial decline.Since 2012,No significant picks up.In addition,International container index from July 2011 to nearly 792 points,Slide to December 2011 nearly 499 points,To shock to June 2012 502 points.Can be judged,Reflect the global trade flow of international transport market container freight index trend,Is showing the trend of international trade growth.

　　第二，初级产品价格还处于相对高位。自国际金融危机以来，全球初级产品价格指数逐步恢复到一个较高价位，尤其是自2011年底以来一直维持在高点。尽管大宗商品价格的提高也会增加全球的名义收入，但是其对贸易品价格效应的传导速度快于收入效应，并且对价格效应的传导力度也强于收入效应。实际上，较高的初级产品价格会削弱消费者的购买力，不利于消费者市场的活跃发展。所以，较高的初级产品价格通过提高出口价格指数，降低发展中国家出口的国际竞争力，对全球贸易的提升不利。

The second,Primary product price is still in a relatively high.Since since the international financial crisis,Global primary products price index gradually return to a higher level,Especially since the end of 2011 has been maintained at high.Despite the increase in the price of commodities will also increase the global nominal income,But the trade product price effect of conduction speed faster than income effect,And the price effect of conduction strength is stronger than income effect.In fact,Higher primary products prices will weaken the consumers' purchasing power,Against the consumer market, active development.so,Higher primary product price through the improve export price index,Reduce the developing countries export international competitiveness,On global trade promotion adverse.

　　第三，全球需求萎缩导致生产扩张趋缓。全球经济增长放缓导致的需求萎缩对全球贸易形成极大压力。偏高的初级产品价格推高了生产成本，体现生产扩张情况的采购经理指数（PMI）数月以来走势低迷。2012年4月，全球综合PMI指数回落至52.3%，随后的6～8月分别是50.3%、51.7%和51.1%。其中，制造业的PMI指数则从6月就已降至50%以下，8月滑落至48.1%；服务业PMI指数虽保持在52%上下，但较年初55%以上的水平，已有大幅下降。其中，新兴经济体的情况也不容乐观，欧洲国家深陷债务危机，对贸易品需求急剧下降，阻碍了出口国家的生产扩张。上述情况说明，全球生产情况令人担忧，外部需求严重疲软，这也折射出全球贸易走势的暗淡前景。

The third,Global demand atrophy leads to slowing production expansion.The global economic slowdown in demand atrophy of global trade form great pressure.The primary products prices pushed up the cost of production,Reflect production expansion of purchasing managers index(PMI)Since the downturn trend for months.In April 2012,Global integrated PMI index dropped to 52.3%,Then June to August respectively is 50.3%/51.7% and 51.1%.the,Manufacturing PMI index is from June has dropped to below 50%,August slipped to 48.1%;Services PMI index is maintained at 52% up and down,But more than 55% of the year level,Has plunged.the,Emerging economies' situation is not optimistic,European countries in the debt crisis,To trade goods demand fell sharply,Hindered the exporting countries production expansion.The above statement,Global production situation is worrying,External demand serious weakness,It also reflects the trend of global trade of dim prospects.

　　第四，贸易摩擦不断深化成为贸易增长的绊脚石。国际金融危机以来，贸易保护主义重新抬头。历史经验表明，经济疲软持续的时间越长，就越容易滋生贸易保护主义，但是很难准确衡量其对贸易流影响有多大。以邻为壑的贸易政策在2009年之后呈不断蔓延趋势，以关税上调、出口限制以及不公正的监管调整在内的保护主义措施的增多远远超过预期。这一阶段的贸易措施呈现出几个新的特点：大国的贸易措施增多；由关税措施向非关税措施转变；保护措施的长期化等。外部需求推动经济复苏

The fourth,Trade friction deepening become a stumbling block to trade growth.Since the international financial crisis,Trading protectionism raises head again.Historical experience shows that,Economic weakness the longer it goes on,The easier it is to breed trade protectionism,But it is difficult to accurately measure the trade flow how much impact.Do harm to a neighbour's trade policy after 2009 is spreads trend,To raise tariffs/Export restrictions and unjust supervision adjustment, the increase of protectionist measures far more than expected.This one phase of the trade measures of present some new characteristics:Power increased trade measures;The tariff measures non-tariff measures to change;Protective measures, such as long-term.External demand to promote economic recovery

　　WTO在2012年9月22日发布的《全球贸易风险分析报告》中指出，2013年全球贸易增速由此前预计的5.6%下调至4.5%，其中，发达经济体的出口增速可达到3.3%，新兴经济体的出口增速可达到5.7%。WTO的预测主要基于以下两点：一是目前欧洲一系列措施足以避免欧元区的分裂；二是美国政府达成稳定公共财政协议并在2013年初避免自动减支和增税。由于2012年全球贸易增速基数较低，预计2013年全球贸易会以4%~4.5%的增速发展。

WTO on September 22, 2012 issued[Global trade risk analysis report]that,In 2013, the global trade growth before the expected 5.6% down to 4.5%,the,Developed economies export growth can reach 3.3%,Emerging economies' exports growth can reach 5.7%.The WTO prediction is based on the following two points:One is the European a series of measures to avoid the euro area's division;The second is the United States government achieve stable public finance agreement and in early 2013 in order to avoid the automatic and tax increases.Due to the 2012 global trade growth lower base,Global trade is expected to 2013 with 4% ~ 4.5% growth development.

　　以往新兴经济体注重对发达经济体的出口，目前，新兴经济体之间的外部需求不断扩大，这是促进贸易增长的新引擎之一。新兴经济体之间多是在制造业或者能源领域存在较大的外部需求，应该保证此方面的增长源。另外，一些免受债务危机之苦的发达经济体应该将出口市场瞄准新兴经济体，因为短期内欧元区重债国难以恢复元气，对外部需求也难有佳绩。所以，无论是新兴经济体还是发达经济体，都要不断寻求贸易增长源，以外部需求推动全球经济进一步复苏。

Ever pay attention to emerging economies to developed economies export,At present,Emerging economies between the growing external demand,This is to promote trade growth is one of the new engine.Between emerging economies are in manufacturing or energy field in large external demand,Should ensure that the ZengChangYuan.In addition,Some of the debt crisis from the bitter developed economies should be aimed at export market of emerging economies,Because of the short term the euro zone ChongZhaiGuo difficult to recover from,External demand is also difficult to have success.so,Whether emerging economies have also been developed economies,Must continuously seek trade ZengChangYuan,External demand to promote global economic recovery further.