美欧一旦达成自由贸易协定，加上美国在金融领域难以撼动的主导地位，不仅将巩固以美欧范式为基础的全球贸易体系，更将打压新兴经济体积极主导全球贸易体系的行为空间。如若美欧成功构筑了针对中国的“金融与贸易高边疆”，那么中国在全球顶层价值链中的地位将很难获得实质性提升。

Once the us and Europe for a free trade agreement,With the United States in the financial sector is difficult to shake the leading position,Not only will consolidate with us and European paradigm based global trading system,More will crack down on emerging economies positive leading global trading system behavior space.If the American and European success in China's building"Finance and trade high frontier",So it's China's turn on the top of the value chain status will be difficult to get real ascension.

　　章玉贵

ZhangYuGui

　　几乎占到全球经济一半产出的美国和欧盟，日前释放涉及新贸易和投资协定展开谈判的信号，无疑将对全球经济走向产生深远的影响。

Almost half of global economic output of the United States and the European Union,A new release involved in trade and investment agreement negotiations signal,On the global economy will no doubt to produce a far-reaching influence.

　　联想到作为全球第二大经济体的中国，去年对外贸易总额只落后于美国156亿美元，迟早要取代美国成为全球第一大贸易国的趋势，美欧旨在为“全球其他国家在标准制定、监管和经济关系树立典范”的上述之举，背后蕴含的战略意义，不言自明。

Lenovo to as the world's second largest economy of China,Last year the total foreign trade only behind the United States $15.6 billion,Sooner or later, to replace the United States as the world's first big trading nation trend,Aimed at the us and Europe"Other countries around the world in the standards/Supervision and economic relationship model set up"An above,Behind the implication of strategic significance,self-evident.

　　问题还在于，对中国这样一个非常欠缺自主品牌又基本不掌握定价权的超级新兴经济体来说，尽管去年进出口贸易额高达38667.6亿美元，其中出口总额为20498.3亿美元，出口量占到全球出口总额的10%以上。但细细算来，其战略价值实际上远没有想像中那样大。

The problem is that,On China's such a very lack of independent brands and basic don't grasp the pricing super for emerging economies,Last year despite import and export trade as much as $3.86676 trillion,The export amount of $2.04983 trillion,Exports account for more than 10% of the global total exports.But carefully --,Its strategic value actually far from imagination so big.

　　就说说去年的对外贸易情况吧。尽管世界第一贸易大国的地位岌岌可危，但美国无论是贸易结构还是在全球贸易价值链中获得的实际利益都远超中国。在美国去年的出口结构中，资本货物占最大的类别，去年这一数据创历史新高达5267亿美元，余下是工业用品（5009亿美元）、消费产品（1816亿美元）、汽车及零部件（1460亿美元）。而且美国一向引以为傲的服务贸易去年的盈余高达1953亿美元。在美国的贸易赤字中，又有53.9%的比例来自石油领域，而在美元占到石油贸易结算90%以上的今天，这种简单的数字游戏对美国来说绝对弊大于利。因为在美元依然是全球最主要的贸易与支付中介的金融框架下，美国财政部、美联储和庞大的商业银行与投资银行体系结成了命运共同体，共同服务于美国的国家战略。美联储作为全球事实上的中央银行的地位暂时没有人能撼动。而全球贸易对美元的需求又使得各国不能不依托于美国的金融系统和美元从事经济活动。

Say last year about foreign trade.Although the world trade country's grim,But the United States whether trade structure or in global trade value chain for the actual benefits are far more than China.In the United States last year's export structure,Capital goods accounted for the largest category,Last year the new historical data and as high as $526.7 billion,The rest is industrial goods(500.9 billion dollars)/Consumer products(181.6 billion dollars)/Automobile and automobile parts(146 billion dollars).And the United States has always been proud of the service trade surplus as much as $195.3 billion last year.In the United States in the trade deficit,And the proportion of 53.9% from oil field,And in dollars account for more than 90% of the oil trade settlement today,This simple Numbers game for the absolute do more harm than good.Because the dollar is still the world's leading trade and pay intermediary financial framework,The us Treasury/The fed and the large commercial Banks and investment Banks system became a common destiny,Group constructionthe United States national strategy.The federal reserve as a global central Banks in fact position temporarily no one can shake.And global trade need for dollars and that countries have to rely on in the United States financial system and the dollar is engaged in economic activities.

　　以美中贸易结构为例，表面看来，中国是最大获益方。如2012年中美双边贸易总额为4846.8亿美元，对美贸易顺差2189.2亿美元，实际上却是不折不扣的打工者。中国对美纺织品出口企业的平均利润率只有2%至3%。即便是大宗机电产品出口也主要以加工贸易为主，而且多是美国在华投资企业所生产。明眼人都知道，波音、苹果、IBM、英特尔、宝洁、可口可乐、沃尔玛等跨国公司才是最大获利者。因此，所谓的中美贸易失衡，尽管可以简单地从数字上分析，但更应站在价值获益的角度来解剖。基于后者的分析，中国对美出口产品由于主要集中在中低附加值产品领域，企业普遍缺少核心技术和核心产品，严重依赖国外的技术创新，因而盈利受到严重限制和挤压；与此相反，在华美国跨国公司通过产品链条内的垂直分工，在中国投资生产低附加值零件和整机装配，同时进口凝聚技术精华的高附加值部件，并拿走了大部分利润。因此，中国加入WTO后，尽管对美出口快速增长，实际分工地位却不升反降。

To the trade structure as an example,The surface looks,China is the biggest benefit party.Such as the 2012 total bilateral trade between China and the United States for 484.68 billion dollars,Trade surplus with the us $218.92 billion,In fact it is a real migrant workers.China textile export enterprises to the average profit margin is only 2% to 3%.Even large mechanical and electrical products export also mainly processing trade is given priority to,And more investment in China is the enterprise production.Eyes to know,Boeing/apple/IBM/Intel/Procter & gamble/Coca-Cola/Wal-mart and other multinational companies is the biggest the profit.so,The so-called china-us trade imbalances,Although it can be simply from digital analysis,But more should stand in the perspective of benefit value of anatomy.Based on the analysis of the latter,China's exports to the United States mainly concentrated in the product due to the low value-added products field,Enterprise is the lack of core technologies and core products,Heavy reliance on foreign technology innovation,Thus profit severely limit and extrusion;In contrast,In China, the United States multinational companies through the product chain within the vertical division of labor,Investment in China production low value-added components and machine assembly,At the same time, the essence of the condensation technology import high value-added component,And took away most of the profits.so,China's accession to the WTO,Despite the rapid growth of exports to the United States,The actual division of labor status did not rise but lower.

　　在中美双边贸易过程中，美国除了出口制成品之外，最具含金量的“商品”就是出口美元。美国保持这种贸易逆差表面看吃亏，也失去了一部分就业机会，实际赚大了。试想，还有什么比享用中国价廉物美的商品同时又有人送美元上门的日子更爽的呢？

In the bilateral trade between China and the United States in the process,The United States in addition to export finished products outside,Most of the gold content"goods"Export is $.The United States maintain the trade deficit to see a surface,Also lost some of their jobs,Actual earn big.Just think,What better than eating Chinese cheap and fine products at the same time, someone gave dollars to day more cool?

　　美国财政部在2月15日公布的初步统计数据显示，2012年12月，中国大幅增持197亿美元美国国债，持有总额突破1.2万亿大关，创下全年新高，说明中国在对美国的双边经济博弈中依然处于相当被动的地位。美国可以忍受对华巨额贸易逆差，中国数以千万计的产业工人的血汗换来了不少美元，但中国的外汇储备越积越多，持有的美国债券也随之增多，就越担心美元贬值，而如今的美国又没有绝对的义务同时也不可能保证美元币值稳定。所以，中国实际上比美国更关心美元走势。偏偏如今的美元又是一种没有抵押品的债务凭证，是一种全世界通行的高级“白条”。中国在收到这些“白条”之后，美国还看到了中国出口企业在全球产业链的代工（OEM）格局下对汇率稳定高度依赖的弱点，以中国操控人民币汇率为借口，经常敲打中国经济的敏感神经。

The United States in the ministry of finance announced on February 15, preliminary statistics,In December of 2012,China vastly increasing the national debt of $19.7 billion,Total have hit the 1.2 trillion mark,Hit a record high throughout the year,China to the United States that the bilateral economic game is still in a quite passive position.The United States can bear huge trade deficit with China,China's tens of millions of workers white for many dollars,But China's foreign currency reserves is piling up,Holdings of us bonds also increases,The worry about the dollar,And now the United States and there is no absolute duty at the same time also can't guarantee the dollar stability.so,In China than in the United States $more concerned about the situation.Are today's dollars is a kind of no collateral debt owed,Is a kind of the world through senior"I.O.U.".China received these"I.O.U."after,The United States also saw China's export enterprises in the global industrial chain foundry(OEM)Pattern to exchange rate stability is highly dependent on the weakness,With China's manipulation of the RMB exchange rate as an excuse,Often beat China's economic sensitive nerve.

　　深谙全球经济竞争与产业变迁之道的美国，深知中国由制造和贸易大国向产业与资本强国以及贸易强国迈进的趋势难以被完全遏制，人民币迟早要成为全球主要的贸易与结算货币之一，上海也会在某一天一跃而为国际金融中心与初级产品中心。因此，美国如今的战略是，在中国的经济雄心与具体要素暂时不匹配时，尽可能利用其对现有经济、金融与贸易规则的主导地位，压缩中国发挥超级新兴经济体张力的空间。

Capable of global economic competition and industry the way of change of the United States,Know that China by manufacturing and trade country to industry and capital power and trade power forward trend is difficult to be fully contained,Sooner or later the should become the main trade and one of the settlement currency,Shanghai will one day and one for international financial center and the primary products center.so,The United States today's strategy is,In China's economic ambition and specific elements temporary mismatch,As far as possible to use the existing economic/Finance and trade rules of the dominant position,Compression China play super emerging economies tension of space.

　　所以，美欧一旦达成自由贸易协定，加上美国在金融领域难以撼动的主导地位，不仅将巩固以美欧范式为基础的全球贸易体系，更将打压新兴经济体积极主导全球贸易体系的行为空间；如若美欧成功构筑了针对中国的“金融与贸易高边疆”，加上高技术领域的技术锁定，则中国在全球顶层价值链中的地位将很难获得实质性提升。

so,Once the us and Europe for a free trade agreement,With the United States in the financial sector is difficult to shake the leading position,Not only will consolidate with us and European paradigm based global trading system,More will crack down on emerging economies positive leading global trading system behavior space;If the American and European success in China's building"Finance and trade high frontier",With high technology, technical lock,Is China in the global value chain and the top of the position will be difficult to get real ascension.

　　因此，在全球贸易格局面临大洗牌的新的历史时期，中国迫切需要总结以往对外贸易发展的经验，必须尽快培育一大批能全方位参与全球贸易竞争的种子选手，前瞻性地分析全球贸易分工与产业竞争的未来生态，在切实提高应对国际经济摩擦博弈水准的同时，积极参与国际贸易新规则的制定，更应深耕核心技术的研发与自主品牌的国际化推广，抓紧确立并巩固出口产品的高增值和高技术发展导向，全力提升出口产品的竞争力。另一方面，在积极参与资本与技术要素密集的制成品乃至中间品生产的同时，还需大力发展中国的服务贸易，优化中国的贸易结构，由此进一步提升在全球贸易价值链中的获益程度。

so,In the global trade pattern face big shuffling of the new historical period,China urgently needs the summary of the development of foreign trade experience,As soon as possible to cultivate a large number of can all participate in the global trade competition seeds,Prospective analysis of global trade division of labor and industry competition future ecological,In improving to deal with the international economic friction game level at the same time,Actively participate in the formulation of new international trade rules,We should subsoil core technology and the research and development of the internationalization of the independent brand promotion,To establish and consolidate the export products of high value-added and high technology development direction,To improve the competitiveness of the export products.On the other hand,In the active participation in capital and technology intensive elements of finished goods and ZhongJianPin production at the same time,Still need to develop China's service trade,Optimization of China's trade structure,To further enhance the benefit of the value chain in global trade level.

　　（作者系上海外国语大学国际金融贸易学院院长）

(The author is Shanghai international studies university, dean of the college of international financial and trade)