近年来，我国水泥产能迅速扩张，水泥出口也随之“井喷”式增长。2012年，我国共出口水泥1199.7万吨，比2011年(下同)增加13.1%，价值6.8亿美元，增长10.2%；出口平均价格为每吨57美元，下跌2.5%，出现了水泥出口量增价跌的新情况。

In recent years,Rapid expansion of cement production capacity in China,Cement exports also subsequently"blowout"Type growth.In 2012,,China's total export 11.997 million tons of cement,Than it was in 2011(The same below)A 13.1% increase in,Valued at $680 million,Growth of 10.2%;Average export price of $57 per ton,Down 2.5%,The cement exports increased price falls in the new situation.

　　由于受国家房地产调控政策的影响，2012年，国内房地产投资增速开始高位回落，水泥供大于求的状态有所加剧，国内水泥企业纷纷降价出口，以缓解国内市场的供需矛盾。

Due to the effect of national real estate regulation and control policy,In 2012,,Domestic real estate investment growth rate began to highs,State of the cement supply increased,Domestic cement companies export prices,To ease the contradiction between supply and demand in the domestic market.

　　煤价低迷为水泥价格下跌创造了空间。煤炭成本一般占水泥企业生产成本的30%~40%。受国内市场需求不旺的影响，2012年，我国煤炭价格整体呈明显下降态势，下半年之后更是持续保持在每吨650元以下。其中，8月1日环渤海地区5500大卡市场动力煤的综合平均价格降至626元/吨的低位，刷新了“环渤海动力煤价格指数”发布以来的最低纪录，累计跌幅高达161元/吨。国内煤炭价格持续低迷，有利于降低水泥企业的生产成本，为水泥降价出口提供了一定的空间。

Prices low prices created space for cement.Coal costs typically account for 30% ~ 40% of cement enterprise production cost.Affected by domestic market demand is flourishing,In 2012,,The coal price significantly decreased on the whole situation in our country,After the second half of the year is to stay under 650 yuan per ton.Among them,On August 1, 5500 calories in the circum bohai sea region market comprehensive thermal coal prices fell to an average of 626 yuan/ton of low,Refresh the"Bohai sea thermal coal price index"The minimum record since its launch,Accumulative total losses as high as 161 yuan/ton.Domestic coal prices continue to slump,Can lower the production cost of cement enterprises,Provides a certain space to cut prices for cement exports.

　　产能过剩压力加大。由于我国水泥行业迅猛扩张。截至2012年年底，我国已建成投产的新型干法熟料生产线已达1637条，熟料产能高达16亿吨，加上在建项目，预计到2013年年底，我国新型干法熟料产能将达到18.23亿吨。按照1吨熟料生产1.55吨水泥的标准及设计建设过程中会有10%~20%的富余度来计算，到2013年年底，全国水泥实际产能将达到31.1亿吨，而未来1至2年内，每年的水泥需求量难超25亿吨，意味着2013年全国新型干法水泥产能将过剩30%。

Pressure on excess capacity.Due to rapid expansion of cement industry in our country.By the end of 2012,Our country has completed and put into operation of new dry process clinker production line has reached 1637,Clinker production capacity of 1.6 billion tons,Combined with project under construction,Is expected by the end of 2013,Our country NSP clinker production capacity will reach 1.823 billion tons.In accordance with the standards of 1 ton of 1.55 tons of cement clinker production and design in the process of the construction there will be 10% ~ 20% to calculate the surplus degrees,By the end of 2013,The national cement actual production capacity will reach 3.11 billion tons,But the future 1 to 2 years,Demand is difficult to exceed 2.5 billion tons every year,Means that in 2013 the NSP cement excess production capacity will be 30%.

　　目前，我国水泥产业集中度仍然偏低，在全国4000多家水泥企业中，规模排在前十家的企业集中度仅为26%，远低于国际70%的平均数，导致水泥行业价格恶性竞争和产能过剩常态化。对此，国家层面虽然不断推出兼并重组措施，但地方落实依然困难重重，错综复杂的利益分配让本来应该“市场化”的兼并重组非常困难，加上国有企业和民营企业因为不同所有制而出现的重组难题，都阻碍了水泥行业兼并重组实现大集团战略目标的步伐。自2003年12月23日国办发[2003]103号文件开始对水泥等产能过剩行业实施宏观调控以来，国家发布了与水泥产业有关的宏观调控政策文件多达38个，但国内水泥产能过剩顽疾仍无法根治。2013年，全球经济发展依然存在诸多不确定因素，国际市场水泥需求恐难以出现较大提升。与此同时，非洲的最大市场安哥拉经过长期的战后恢复建设后，需求开始有所下降，部分非洲国家水泥产能迅猛扩张也将加剧非洲水泥市场的竞争。此外，俄罗斯水泥生产商正准备与白俄罗斯和哈萨克斯坦同行向欧亚经济委员会提交联合声明，要求对三国市场进口廉价水泥采取反制措施。

At present,Concentration of cement industry in China is still low,In more than 4000 cement companies in the country,Size of the top ten enterprises concentration is only 26%,Far below the international average of 70%,Lead to a vicious competition and the price of cement industry overcapacity normalized.For this,National level while continuously introduce merger and restructuring measures,But the implementation is still fraught with difficulties,The interests of the complicated distribution should have"The marketization"The annexation and reorganization of very difficult,Plus the state-owned enterprises and private enterprises because of the different system of ownership in the restructuring of the problem,Have hindered the cement industry merger and reorganization to realize the pace of the big group strategic objectives.Since December 2003, 23 countries do hair [2003] no. 103 document to cement, etc. Since the implementation of macroeconomic regulation and control in industries with excess capacity,Countries issued related to the cement industry of macroeconomic regulation and control policy document up to 38,But domestic cement excess capacity still cannot effect a radical cure ills.In 2013,,The global economic development still exist many uncertain factors,The international cement market demand is not a big improvement.At the same time,The biggest market for Angola after a long period of postwar recovery after construction,Demand began to fall,Part of the African countries cement rapid expansion of production capacity will also increase cement market competition.In addition,Russian cement producers are prepared with belarus and kazakhstan to submit a joint statement to the economic commission for Europe and Asia,For the three market import cheap concrete countermeasures.

　　新型城镇化提升市场需求空间。在2012年12月召开的中央经济工作会议上，城镇化再次成为各界关注的焦点。会议指出，城镇化是我国现代化建设的历史任务，也是扩大内需的最大潜力所在，要围绕提高城镇化质量，因势利导、趋利避害，积极引导城镇化健康发展。从政策上看，推进新型城镇化将成为我国2013年乃至接下来几年经济工作的重点，而城镇化建设必然伴随着大量的基础设施、公共服务设施及居民住房等建设，这将有利于提升国内水泥需求的增长空间。

New urbanization promote market demand space.In 2012 central economic work conference in December,Urbanization has once again become the focus of attention from all walks of life.Meeting notes,Urbanization is the historical task for the construction of modernization in our country,And the greatest potential for expanding domestic demand,To improve the quality of urbanization around,Improve the occasion/The disadvantages,Actively guide the healthy development of urbanization.Look from the policy,Advancing the new urbanization will become our country in 2013 and even the next few years the focus of economic work,Inevitably accompanied by a large number of infrastructure and urbanization construction/Public service facilities, residential construction, etc,This will be conducive to promote the growth of domestic demand for cement.

　　2012年11月，环保部发布了关于《水泥工业大气污染物排放标准》等四项环保标准征求意见稿。同时还对排放颗粒物、二氧化硫、氨等提出更高要求。工信部、财政部等部门日前联合发布的《关于加快推进重点行业企业兼并重组的指导意见》提出，到2015年，我国规模排在前十位的水泥企业产业集中度将达到35%，形成3至4家熟料产能1亿吨以上的企业。国家不断强化水泥行业的规范管理，有利于推进行业的健康发展。这些项目大部分将在2013年进入实际投入阶段，而2012年12月召开的中央经济工作会议更是将“新型城镇化”列为2013年的主要工作任务，这些都有利于提升国内市场的水泥需求，增强行业信心。业内人士认为，当前我国水泥行业所面临的困难和挑战依然不容忽视。一方面，产能过剩和无序竞争依然制约着行业的向好发展；另一方面，出口障碍逐渐增多，也将在一定程度上制约我国水泥出口的增长空间。因此，虽然2013年我国水泥行业生存环境将有所好转，但是提升空间将相对有限，特别是出口方面难以乐观。

In November 2012,Of environmental protection released on[Cement industry air pollutants emission standards]Four environmental standards such as draft.At the same time also on particle emission/Sulfur dioxide/Ammonia etc. Put forward higher requirements.Ministry of industry/Departments recently jointly issued by the ministry of finance[About accelerate the key industry enterprise merger and reorganization of the guidance]Put forward,By 2015,The size of the top ten cement enterprises in our country industrial concentration will reach 35%,Form 3 to 4 enterprises clinker production capacity of 100 million tons.Countries continuously strengthening the management of the specification of the cement industry,Is conducive to promoting the healthy development of the industry.Most of these projects will be entered the stage of actual spending in 2013,The central economic work conference held in December 2012 will be more"New type of urbanization"2013 as the main task,These are conducive to improve the cement demand in the domestic market,Strengthen industry confidence.The personage inside course of study thinks,Current our country cement industry facing difficulties and challenges still nots allow to ignore.On the one hand,Excess capacity and disorderly competition still restricts the positive development of the industry;On the other hand,Export barriers,Will also to a certain extent, restrict China's cement exports growth space.so,Although in 2013 our country cement industry environment will be improved,However ascending space is relatively limited,Especially difficult to optimistic in exports.