2月26日，汇丰（HSBC）和牛津经济（Oxford Economics）联合编写并发布的报告称，主要新兴市场国家之间的出口将在未来几十年驱动全球经济增长，彻底改变国际贸易格局。

On February 26,,HSBC(HSBC)And Oxford economics(Oxford Economics,)Joint. Write and publish the report,Main exports between emerging market countries will in the next few decades driving global economic growth,Change the pattern of international trade.

　　该报告预计，随着新兴市场经济体变得越来越富裕、内需越来越强，彼此之间的贸易规模将在2030年前的10余年快速增长。印度、越南以及中国的出口增势将最为强劲。这3个国家未来7年的年均出口增速都将达到两位数。同时，发达经济体的出口将以更为平缓的速度增长。大多数工业化国家出口的产品和服务，主要是面向其他发达经济体。此外，新兴市场国家的技术创新将导致某些行业竞争加剧。对中国等处在工业化进程前列的经济体而言，其对外贸易将受到工业机械以及信息技术等行业增长的推动。

The report predicts,As the emerging market economies is becoming more and more rich/Domestic demand is more and more strong,The trade scale between each other more than 10 years of rapid growth in 2030 years ago.India/Vietnam and China's export growth will be the strongest.The three countries the next seven years of average annual export growth will reach double digits.At the same time,Developed economies export will be in a more gentle pace.Most of the industrialized countries export products and services,Mainly oriented to the rest of the developed economies.In addition,Technological innovation in emerging markets will lead to some industry competition.For in advance of his industrialization economies such as China,The foreign trade will be subject to industrial machinery and the growth of information technology industries, to promote.

　　面对来自新兴市场经济体成本较低生产商的竞争压力，发达经济体的出口商需要将精力集中在高科技行业上，因为它们在这一领域拥有比较优势。就美国而言，机械、汽车、飞机、航空航天设备以及计算机等行业的出口增长料将继续保持强劲，技术创新对于这些行业至关重要。报告预测，这些行业中的德国和法国制造商也将有不错的表现。

Faced with competition from emerging market economies lower cost producers,In developed economies exporters need to focus on the high-tech industry,Because they have a comparative advantage in the field.In terms of the United States,mechanical/car/The plane/Aerospace equipment, and computer industries such as export growth is expected to remain strong,Technological innovation is vital for these industries.The report predicts,The German and French manufacturers in these industries will be have good performance.

　　新兴市场经济体的快速工业化以及工资水平上涨也将给发达经济体带来机遇，使其能够扩大向主要工业化国家的出口。随着像中国这样的国家向高附加值产业转型，越南、孟加拉等工资水平较低的国家将迎来发展机遇。加拿大、墨西哥以及中国仍将是美国最主要的出口贸易伙伴。中国仍将是巴西的第一大出口目的地，而印度、越南将是巴西增长最快的出口贸易伙伴。印度在亚洲范围内的出口将有显著增长，其与中国之间的贸易联系将变得更加重要。目前，印度对国际贸易的依赖程度不及很多其他新兴经济体。在2030年前，印度还将成为阿根廷前五大出口贸易伙伴之一。阿根廷与韩国、越南、中国、马来西亚等其他亚太国家之间的贸易联系也将加强。

Rapid industrialisation of emerging market economies and rising wages will also bring opportunities for developed economies,Enable it to expand exports to major industrialized countries.As countries like China to high value-added industry transformation,Vietnam/In countries with lower wages, such as Bangladesh could usher in a new development opportunity.Canada/Mexico and China will continue to be America's main export trade partner.China will still be Brazil's first largest export destination,While India/Vietnam will be Brazil's fastest growing export trade partner.India in Asia within the scope of the increase in exports will be,Trade links between China and its will become more important.At present,India's dependence on international trade degree less than many other emerging economies.2030 years ago,India will also become one of Argentina's top five export trade partner.Argentina and South Korea/Vietnam/China/Trade links between Malaysia and other asia-pacific countries will be strengthened.

　　（来源：《金融时报》 2月27日  摘编：亚太财经与发展中心）

(source:[The financial times] On February 27,  A roundup:Asia-pacific finance and development center)