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中日韩自由贸易区迷局--亲民维稳网络舆情监测室
2013-03-04

  3月20日至21日,中日韩三国在东京召开自由贸易协定谈判预备会议,旨在为今年三四月份召开的第一次谈判会议做准备。这也是最近一年来,中国方面再次单独对外抛出关于三国自由贸易协定进展的消息。不过关于本次谈判预备会议,中国方面再也没有任何消息公布,而记者注意到,中日韩三国自由贸易区这一话题在日本韩国媒体几乎找不到任何相关报道,似乎只是中国一头热!

On March 20, and 21,In Japan and South Korea free trade agreement negotiations preparatory meeting in Tokyo,Aimed at first negotiation meetings held in March and April this year.This is also a recent years,China alone again thrown to foreign news about progress in three free trade agreements.But about the negotiations preparatory meeting,China has no any news,The reporter noticed,Japan and South Korea free trade area in this topic in Japan and South Korea media almost couldn't find any related reports,Seems to be a hot in China!

  刚刚过去的2012年对于中日韩三国所在的东北亚地区的确不太平:中日与日韩围绕岛屿等领土和领海问题在外交领域展开了多轮攻防;岁末,随着日本自民党政府上台并推行量化宽松的货币政策,“货币战争”也已经打响,韩国甚至被认为是这场即将到来的国际货币危机中倒下的第一张多米诺骨牌。2013年中国农历新年一过,朝鲜半岛的一次核试验又为东北亚地区的政经形势增添了新变数。

Over the past 2012 years in China, South Korea and Japan in northeast Asia is not well:Between China and Japan around the islands territorial and maritime issues such as China and South Korea carried out several rounds of offensive and defensive in the realm of foreign affairs;The end,As the Democratic Party of Japan government came to power and to implement quantitative easing monetary policy,"The currency wars"Also has begun,South Korea and even is considered to be the upcoming international monetary crisis in the first piece of domino to fall.In 2013 after the Chinese lunar New Year,The Korean peninsula a nuclear test and added new variable for the economic and political situation in northeast Asia.

  近日,日本主流媒体关注的财经焦点是日本希望加入今年10月份启动的由美国主导的跨太平洋[0.00 0.00% 资金 研报]伙伴关系协议(TPP)谈判和本月已经启动的欧盟和美国之间的自由贸易区谈判。尤其是后者不仅将取消关税,而且将涵盖投资、政府采购、非关税壁垒、知识产权、环保与劳动、竞争政策、国营企业运营方式等新一代贸易规则的全部,极有可能成为高层次的事实上的国际规则。对于还没有摆脱百年来形成的“脱亚入欧”思维的日本来说,欧美主导的新国际贸易规则事关重大。

In recent days,Japan's mainstream media of finance and economics focus is Japan wants to join the launch in October of this year by the u.s.-led trans-pacific [0.00 0.00% money Research report] partnership agreement(The TPP)Negotiation and this month has been launched fta negotiations between the eu and the us.Especially the latter will not only remove tariffs,And will cover the investment/Government procurement/Non-tariff barriers/Intellectual property rights/Environmental protection and labor/Competition policy/State-owned enterprises operating mode, etc. All of a new generation of trade rules,Is likely to become a high level of international rules, in fact.For has not get rid of to form in one hundred"Take off the into Europe"Thinking of Japan,Europe and the United States dominated the new rules of international trade matters.

  “安倍是一个国家主义者,不能完全认为是走亲美路线。同时也应该看到中日之间的经济关系已经非常紧密,双方都需要对方”。日本日中研究所研究员吉田阳介博士用并不悲观的语气阐述着本轮中日政治关系紧张风波对中日经济关系的影响。与2012年中国国内媒体对于两国经贸关系的大篇幅报道不同,日本主流媒体对此多处以冷处理。与2005年的中日关系风波相比,“抵制日货”式的思维和言论并没有再次在中国国内引起轰动,而在2005年的那轮风波中,时任丰田总裁奥田硕曾公开表示,中国的汽车产业离不开日本的机床和零部件,不必担心中国出现的抵制日货声音。

"Mr Abe is a nationalist,Is not fully considered pro-american route.At the same time should also see have very close economic ties between China and Japan,Both sides need each other".Japanese researcher at the institute of Japan, Dr Tian Yang interface is not pessimistic tone demonstrate the current sino-japanese political tensions over the impact on the economic relations between China and Japan.In 2012 China's domestic media reported for bilateral economic and trade relations much different,Japan's mainstream media have more than a cold treatment.Compared to the 2005 sino-japanese relations fallout,"A boycott of Japanese goods"Type of thinking and expression did not again caused a big stir in China,In 2005, in the round,Then Toyota's boss, Mr. Okuda said publicly,China's auto industry cannot leave the machine tool and parts of Japan,Do not worry about China boycott of Japanese goods.

  事实上,日本与美国和德国是全世界很多产业所离不开的“上游”材料、元器件和生产装备以及精密测试仪器的仅有提供者。与日本式的自信不同,处于中日之间“三明治”式状态的韩国心态颇为复杂。与中国媒体和网络上到处流传着的三星电子赶超苹果神话般的成就不同,韩国媒体对来自中国的产业竞争颇为敏感,经常就中韩之间的产业竞争力进行对比报道,甚至每年都会对比在出口方面中国超过韩国的产品数量。或许是韩国政府即将换届,对于上周的中日韩三国自由贸易贸易协定谈判预备会议,韩国国内媒体未做任何报道,反倒是出现了《三星也对中国的发展直冒冷汗》、《主力产业会在5年后被中国超越吗?》式的报道和评论。而与此同时,港台媒体也经常出现为中国大陆与韩国的关系抱打不平式的报道,一方面,韩国从双边经贸合作中掘取巨大利益,另一方面韩国又在安全事务领域强化与美国的同盟关系。

In fact,,Japan and the United States and Germany is the world without many possessions"The upstream"material/Components and the only provider of production equipment and precision testing instruments.Unlike a japanese-style self-confidence,In between China and Japan"A sandwich"Type of the state of the south Korean mentality is rather complicated.With Chinese media and circulated on the Internet with samsung electronics to catch up with apple mythical achievements are different,South Korean media about industry competition from China is sensitive,Often is compared between China and South Korea's industrial competitiveness report,Every year even contrast in terms of export products of China's more than South Korea.Perhaps is the south Korean government is about to change,In last week's trade in Japan and South Korea free trade agreement negotiations preparatory meeting,South Korea's domestic media not to do any report,Instead, appeared[Samsung also straight cold sweat on the development of China]/[Main industry will be overtaken by China for five years?]Type of reporting and commentary.At the same time,The Hong Kong and Taiwan media also often appear as China and South Korea relationship play rough type of reports,On the one hand,South Korea made huge interest from the bilateral economic and trade cooperation,On the other hand, South Korea and strengthen the alliance with the United States in the field of security.

  著名产业经济学家白益民对记者表示:“日本的自信是理所当然的,很多产业的核心技术可不是一二十年能追赶上的。中国在推动三国FTA也是顺理成章的。不过,韩国方面所谓的主力产业会在5年后被中国超越的话题有些水分。中国的海尔和长虹5年后能超越三星电子吗,实际上现在差距比二三十年前更大。我通过与韩国中小企业团体交流发现,虽然韩国政府在扶持大财阀方面和日本有相似之处,但韩国大财阀和国内中小企业的关系并不好,远不是日本式的协作关系。韩国中小企业的创新能力和生态环境也不如日本,因此韩国大财阀只能依靠政府补贴从国外获取核心技术,并不是日本财团式的产业组织者。”

Famous industrial economists Bai Yimin told reporters:"Japan's confidence in for granted,Many industry's core technology is not catching up in one hundred and twenty.China in promoting the three FTA is also logical.but,South Korea the main topic of industry will be overtaken by China for five years in some water.China's haier and changhong will surpass samsung after five years,In fact now the gap is larger than two or three decades ago.I found through communication with South Korea's small and medium-sized enterprise groups,Although South Korea and Japan in terms of supporting the biggest chaebol have similarities,But South Korea's biggest chaebol and the domestic small and medium-sized enterprises relationship is not good,Is far from japan-style collaboration.South Korea's small and medium-sized enterprise innovation ability and the ecological environment and Japan,Thus South Korea's biggest chaebol can only rely on government subsidies for the core technology from abroad,Wasn't the Japanese consortium of industry organizer."

  曾有学者指出,在国际关系历史上存在一个“三角”规律,即在三边关系中最强者倾向于和最弱者联合打压次强者。中日韩之间的“三国演义”在2013年相信会更精彩!

Some scholars pointed out,There is a in the history of international relations"The triangle"law,That is the strongest in the trilateral relations tend to be and the joint suppression of the weak the strong.Between China, Japan and South Korea"The romance of The Three Kingdoms"In 2013, believe that will be more wonderful!



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