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煤炭行业仍未走出“严冬”--亲稳网络舆情监测室
2013-02-27
空气质量恶化现在已经成了国内的一个大难题,对此,环保部门已经做出了进一步的规划,加大治理大气污染的力度,国内煤炭消费也因此遭遇了意想不到的打击,当前各大港口煤炭库存高企。不过,业内人士预计,尽管“环保风暴”将抑制部分高能耗需求,但随着宏观经济回暖和全社会用电量增速的回升,电煤需求将逐渐增加。
Air quality deterioration has already become a big problem in the domestic now,For this,The environmental protection department has made the further planning,More efforts to control air pollution,Domestic coal consumption and therefore suffered an unexpected blow,The current major port coal inventories are high.but,The personage inside course of study is,In spite of"The storm of environmental protection"Will restrain some energy needs,But as the macro economic recovery and the whole society's power consumption growth picks up,Thermal coal demand will increase.
“往年这个时候,电厂日耗煤数量将出现激增,港口库存将相应减少,贸易商采购意愿也会增强。另外,气温回升便于装卸生产,北方港口煤炭运输量会有所回升,沿海煤炭市场疲软态势也将逐步缓解。”卓创资讯的分析师张源认为,煤炭交易价格可能会在3月初触底反弹,但上涨空间不大。
"In previous years at this time,Power plant, there will be a sharp increase in coal consumption,Port inventories will reduce accordingly,Traders purchase intention will be increased.In addition,The rise of temperature is convenient for loading and unloading of the production,The northern port of coal transport will be recovered,Coastal coal market weakness will gradually ease."Zhuo and information, an analyst at original thought,Coal prices may rebound in early march,But not rise space.
据专家介绍,雾霾天气的形成主要受污染源和季节性、地理性等因素共同影响,我国大气污染源主要来自煤炭消费。权威部门相关研究结果显示,火电、钢铁、建材、化工和石油炼化五大行业的污染排放量占全国工业的90%,而前三项都与煤炭行业有关。据了解,目前我国工业用电量所占全社会用电量比重为70%左右,环保部门的关停减排等措施主要针对工业用电,工业用电量的下降势必拖累全国电力需求总量。
According to expert introduction,The formation of haze weather main pollution sources and seasonal/Geographic factors such as the mutual influence,The air pollution mainly comes from coal consumption in our country.Related research results show that authority department,Thermal power/Iron and steel/Building materials/Chemical industry and petroleum refining the five account for 90% of the national industrial pollution emissions,The first three are related to the coal industry.We have learned,At present, the industrial electricity consumption accounts for about for 70% of the total power consumption of the whole society,The environmental protection department of close reduction and other measures aimed at industrial electricity,Industrial decline in electricity consumption will inevitably drag on the total demand for electricity.
对此,港口煤炭贸易商胡先生认为,尽管煤炭需求总量会受到影响,但在强大的固定资产投资基数的惯性支撑作用下,今年煤炭需求量仍将维持低速增长,只是价格上难有太大起色。
For this,Port coal trader, hu said,Although total coal demand will be affected,But in a strong base of fixed asset investment support under the action of inertia,This year's coal demand will remain slow growth,Just hard to have much improvement on the price.
关停减排政策和电力需求不旺等因素在动力煤价格上已有所反映。自去年12月以来,环渤海动力煤价格指数连跌9周,最新报收为625元/吨。2月6日—19日,环渤海地区动力煤(发热量5500大卡)的综合平均价格报收625元/吨,比前一周期下降了2元/吨,创出环渤海动力煤价格指数发布以来的最低水平。
Closed reduction factors such as policy and power demand is not prosperous has reflected on thermal coal prices.Since last December,Bohai sea thermal coal price index fell for 9 weeks,The latest closed at 625 yuan/ton.On February 6-19,Thermal coal link bohai sea area(Calorific value 5500 calories)Comprehensive price closed at an average of 625 yuan/ton,Than the previous period fell by 2 yuan/ton,Released at bohai sea thermal coal price index to its lowest level since.
记者从秦皇岛海运煤炭交易市场获悉,近期,秦皇岛港煤炭库存一直维持高位,2月25日存煤为679.73万吨,而月初曾一度达到800万吨。春节前后,大量工业企业停产放假,煤炭需求大幅下降,电厂库存高企。此外,国信期货焦炭分析师施雨辰表示,今年1月份3055万吨的巨量煤炭进口,也不利煤炭价格上行。
The reporter learns from qinhuangdao seaborne coal market,The recent,Qinhuangdao coal inventories remain high all the time,On February 25, 6.7973 million tons of coal,And, once in early 8 million tons.Before and after the Spring Festival,Shut off for a large number of industrial enterprises,Coal demand,High power plant inventory.In addition,Guosen ShiYuChen coke futures analyst said,In January this year, 30.55 million tons of coal imports huge amount,Also bad coal prices upward.
我国在2009年成为煤炭净进口国,去年进口煤数量激增。数据显示,2012年中国累计进口煤炭2.9亿吨,较2011年增加1.076亿吨。今年1月,我国进口煤炭3055万吨,同比增长56.3%。“今后煤炭月进口量在2500万吨以上将是常态,国内煤炭市场的压力可想而知。”施雨辰说。
China became a net importer of coal in 2009,Last year, a huge surge in imports of coal.According to data,In 2012 China's total imports 290 million tons of coal,From 2011, an increase of 107.6 million tons.In January of this year,China imported 30.55 million tons of coal,Up 56.3% from a year earlier."In more than 25 million tons coal imports in the future will be the norm,Domestic coal market pressure."ShiYuChen said.
青海省一位煤炭贸易商表示,外贸煤的价格比国内的要低一些,煤炭进口的猛增对国内煤炭市场形成了一定的打压。“随着国内动力煤价格的市场化运行,国内煤价有可能向进口煤靠拢”。
Qinghai province a coal trader said,Some coal's price is lower than that of the domestic foreign trade,Coal imports surged on domestic coal market has formed a certain."As the domestic market-oriented operation of the thermal coal prices,Domestic coal prices are likely to import coal".
业内人士认为,短期动力煤价格将继续在底部运行,待二季度下游基建行业旺季到来时或有反弹,但反弹力度和持续性都不会太强。
The personage inside course of study thinks,Short-term thermal coal prices will continue to run in the bottom,Stay in the second quarter season or downstream infrastructure industry has bounced back,But the rebound and sustainability are not too strong.
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