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4月贸易数据被增长受质疑 中央或严查虚假贸易--亲稳网络舆情监控室
2013-05-11
海关总署昨日公布的数据显示,4月进出口数据均明显高于市场预期,其中出口同比增长14.7%,高于上月的10.0%;进口同比增长16.8%,高于上月的14.1%。
The general administration of customs according to data released yesterday,Import and export data are significantly higher than the market expected in April,With exports up 14.7% from a year earlier,Up from 10.0% last month;Imports grew by 16.8% year on year,Up from 14.1% last month.
但漂亮的数据再次引发人们对于数据虚高的质疑。前四个月,虽然中国对传统出口市场欧洲和日本增速都有下滑,对美有10%以内的复苏,对港贸易却出乎意料地高。在整体经济数据并不十分理想的状况下,这一反常表现已经引起高层高度关注。
But again beautiful data caused people to question the data artificially high.In the first four months,Although China's traditional export markets in Europe and Japan are falling growth,To the United States has less than 10% recovery,But unexpectedly high to port trade.In the overall economic data is not very ideal condition,The abnormal performance has caused high attention.
数据显示,前4个月,中欧双边贸易总值1681.6亿美元,下降1.3%。中日双边贸易总值为979.8亿美元,下降8.5%。中美双边贸易总值为1597.4亿美元,增长9.4%。我国与东盟双边贸易总值为1389.7亿美元,增长18.1%。与此同时,内地与香港双边贸易总值为1505.9亿美元,增长66%。
According to data,The first four months,China-eu bilateral trade value is $168.16 billion,Dropped by 1.3%.Bilateral trade to $97.98 billion,Dropped by 8.5%.Sino-us bilateral trade to $159.74 billion,Growth of 9.4%.China and asean bilateral trade to $138.97 billion,Growth of 18.1%.At the same time,Mainland and Hong Kong bilateral trade to $150.59 billion,Growth of 66%.
记者从接近决策层处了解到,高层已开始关注广东深圳等地近几个月来“登峰造极”的对港贸易数据,并可能严查原因。
The reporter understands from the shop is close to the place,Executives have begin to pay close attention to, etc in recent months, shenzhen city, guangdong province"Reach the limit"The port trade data,And because of possible reasons.
澳新银行大中华区首席经济师刘利刚认为,从港口吞吐量来看,中国各大港口的吞吐量均明显出现减速,同时,采购者经理指数中的新出口订单也出现了明显的下滑,这些都与不断走强的贸易数据形成了鲜明的反差。“这表明数据中存在着大量的热钱流入,最终导致了数据的"被增长"。”
Anz bank greater China chief economist liu ligang at anz said,From the port throughput,China's largest port throughput were significantly slowed,At the same time,Purchasing managers index for new export orders also appeared obvious decline,All of these with the strengthening of trade data to form bright contrast."This indicates that the data exists in a large number of hot money inflows,Eventually led to the data"Be growth"."
事实上,通过港澳地区国货复进口导致对港贸易虚高是多年积弊,但近期对港贸易增速已经超越了一般意义上的虚高。数据显示,3月内地对香港的出口增长了92.9%,创下自1995年3月以来的最高同比增速。《第一财经日报》记者此前从权威渠道获悉,最近数月的超速增长,不排除地方政府有推动数据增长的动力。
In fact,,Through Hong Kong and Macao regions after air import lead to artificially high port trade is augean stables for years,But the recent growth of port trade has already moved beyond the general sense of the artificially high.According to data,The mainland exports to Hong Kong in March rose by 92.9%,Since the highest year-on-year growth since March 1995.[First financial daily]Previously, reporters learned from authoritative sources,Speeding growth in recent months,Do not rule out the local government has power to promote the growth of the data.
在海关总署每年公布的出口主要国别(地区)总值表格中,进口原产国(地)中有一项是中华人民共和国。这也就是海关统计人员常提到的“国货复进口”。
Published annually in the general administration of customs export country(region)Value in the table,Import country of origin(to)There is one of the People's Republic of China.This is customs statistics personnel often mentioned"After air import".
周世俭对本报表示,每年有相当一批广东省的企业为了获得退税,利用港澳管道,一进一出之间,每年产生了1000多亿的进口额。
Zhou Shijian told this newspaper,Every year quite a number of guangdong enterprises to get refund,In Hong Kong and Macao tube,Between a into a,Each year more than $1000 of imports.
海关人士向本报透露,一般而言,这与跨国公司的全球产业链布局策略有关,比如一家生产电子产品的跨国公司,产品在中国内地生产,出口至其亚太集散中心香港之后,根据该产品在内地的销量,再分拨一批货物回到内地。但他也坦言,由于中国特色的出口退税制度,确实存在一批企业为了规避境内直接销售的税率,采用到港澳“走一遭”的方式,再以几乎零关税进口内地。为了规范进出口行为,外贸主管部门也曾多次寻找解决办法,但也难以根除这一积弊。
The customs are revealed to our newspaper,In general,It has to do with multinational company global industry chain layout policy,A production of electronic products, such as multinational companies,Products in mainland China production,Exports to the asia-pacific hub in Hong Kong,According to the sales of the products in the mainland,Distribution of a batch of goods again back to the mainland.But he also admitted,Because of the export tax rebate system with Chinese characteristics,There is a group of companies in order to circumvent the domestic direct sales tax,Used to Hong Kong and Macao"A trip for"In the way,Again with almost zero import tariffs on the mainland.In order to regulate the behavior of import and export,Competent departments of foreign trade has also repeatedly to find a solution,But it is difficult to eradicate this house.
本报查阅海关总署发布的数据发现,2012年进口原产国为中华人民共和国的有1428.6亿美元,2011年为1226.1亿美元,2010年为1068.1亿美元。
We refer to the general administration of customs data released findings,Country of origin for imported in 2012 with $142.86 billion in the People's Republic of China,In 2011 for $2011,In 2010 for $2010.
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