被称为中国外贸“晴雨表”的广交会不久前刚刚结束，根据商务部的统计，第113届广交会的到会客商人数与成交额均比第111届有所减少。

Known as China's foreign trade"barometer"Canton fair just finished recently,According to the ministry of commerce,The number and volume of the merchants of the 113th Canton fair are less than 111th.

　　尽管今年以来我国外贸增长率一直高于普遍预期，但商务部新闻发言人沈丹阳5月16日表示，外贸发展面临的国内外压力并未得到根本缓解，对外贸形势的判断不能过于乐观。

Although since this year our country foreign trade growth rate has been higher than consensus forecasts,But the ministry of commerce spokesman Shen Danyang said on May 16,Foreign trade development are faced with the pressure at home and abroad has not been at ease,For the judgment of the situation of foreign trade can't be too optimistic.

　　内外市场仍存变数

Inside and outside the market is still assured

　　根据此前海关总署发布的数据，1~4月，我国进出口总额同比增长14%，内地对香港以外的其他出口市场的出口增速为8.5%，这些数据被认为超出预期。“许多专家认为，今年外贸发展有望好于去年，全年实现增长8%左右的目标有较大可能。”在当天举行的商务部例行新闻发布会上，沈丹阳说，“但当前外贸形势依然充满变数。”

By the general administration of customs according to the data,1 ~ 4 month,China's total import and export growth of 14% year-on-year,Outside of the mainland to Hong Kong export market, export growth of 8.5%,These data are believed to exceed expectations."Many experts believe,This year's foreign trade development is expected to be better than last year,Annual growth of around 8% target is possible."At a regular press conference held by the ministry of commerce on the day,Shen Danyang said,"But the current foreign trade situation is still uncertain."

　　第113届广交会的客商到会及成交情况是反映之一。据统计，本届广交会到会客商20.3万人，比第111届下降3.8%；成交额355.4亿美元，下降1.4%。其中，美国、欧盟、日本客商分别下降5.7%、8.5%、12.1%，成交额分别下降0.5%、4.9%、12.6%。“由于到会采购商出价偏低，加上对人民币升值和成本上升的担忧，企业接单比较谨慎，小金额订单占比较高，6个月内的中短期订单达83.7%。”沈丹阳说。

The business of the 113th Canton fair and clinch a deal is one of the reflection.According to the statistics,This session of the Canton fair 203000 merchants,3.8% lower than the 111th;Turnover was $35.54 billion,Dropped by 1.4%.Among them,The United States/The European Union/Japanese customers fell 5.7%, respectively/8.5%/12.1%,Sales fell 0.5%, respectively/4.9%/12.6%."Due to purchaser price is low,Add to the concerns of the appreciation of the renminbi and rising costs,Companies receive more cautious,Account for small amount order,Short to medium term order of 83.7% within six months."Shen Danyang said.

　　沈丹阳表示，之所以不能够对未来的外贸形势过于乐观，是因为国内外市场仍存不确定性因素。

Shen Danyang said,Are not able to foreign trade situation are too optimistic about the future,Because domestic and foreign markets remained uncertainty.

　　一方面，外需不足尚未得到根本改善，全球性、系统性风险仍值得警惕。国际货币基金组织4月中旬发布了《世界经济展望》报告，将2013年全球经济增长预期下调到3.3%；世贸组织公布2012年全球贸易量增长只有2%，远低于2011年5%的增速，并将2013年全球贸易量增速的预期也下调到3.3%。

On the one hand,External demand shortage has not been improved at all,global/Systemic risk is alarming.The international monetary fund released in the middle of April[World economic outlook]The report,The 2013 global growth forecast to 3.3%;The world trade organization (wto) released global trade growth in 2012 was only 2%,Far below the 5% growth in 2011,And global trade volumes will be 2013 growth forecast to 3.3%.

　　另一方面，国内劳动力、土地等要素成本上升，融资难、融资贵、人民币升值等诸多困难还存在。

On the other hand,Domestic labor/Elements such as land costs rise,Financing difficulties/Financing your/The appreciation of the yuan and so on many difficulties still exist.

　　人民币升值吞噬利润

The appreciation of the renminbi to gobble up the profits

　　其中，人民币升值给出口企业带来的冲击较为明显。据统计，今年1~4月，人民币对美元、欧元、日元等主要货币快速升值，4月份升值进一步加速，给外贸企业经营造成了一定影响。

Among them,The impact of the appreciation of the renminbi to export enterprises.According to the statistics,From January to April this year,The yuan against the dollar/The euro/Main rapid currency appreciation of the yen,Appreciation to further accelerate in April,To the foreign trade enterprise management caused a certain influence.

　　以中日贸易为例，今年4月人民币对日元升值6.1%，我国对日出口同比下降1.2%，比1月回落近7个百分点。外贸企业普遍认为，日本实施量化宽松政策，虽然有利于日本的市场复苏，但难以抵消人民币对日元大幅升值带来的影响，对日出口回升难度较大。

Sino-japanese trade, for example,In April this year the yuan has appreciated 6.1% against the yen,China's exports to Japan fell 1.2% year on year,More than 1 month fell nearly 7%.Is generally believed that foreign trade enterprises,Japan's quantitative easing policy,Although recovery for Japan market,But it is difficult to offset the impact of the yuan against the yen to rise sharply,For export recovery is difficult.

　　沈丹阳表示，商务部研究认为，近期人民币快速升值虽然有利于改善进口贸易条件，但对企业出口签约和利润产生了比较大的负面影响。主要体现在三个方面：

Shen Danyang said,The ministry of commerce research suggests,Although recent for a faster appreciation of the yuan is beneficial to improve the import trade conditions,But export contract and to the enterprise profit produced a larger negative impact.Mainly reflected in three aspects:

　　一是“有单不敢接”的现象更为突出。第113届广交会上参展企业反映，虽然境外需求有所回暖，但是受人民币快速升值影响，企业普遍对于远期经营信心不足，不敢接长单。

One is the"Have single dare not pick up"The phenomenon is more prominent.On the 113th Canton fair exhibitors reflected,Although improvements in foreign demand,But affected by a faster appreciation of the yuan,Enterprises for long-term business confidence,Did not dare to take long list.

　　二是企业出口利润空间进一步缩窄。商务部抽样调查显示，77.5%的企业前4个月在手合同利润明显下滑，6.6%的企业甚至表示会影响正常履约，73.4%的企业预计今年全年出口利润同比只能持平或者下降。

2 it is enterprise export further narrow profit margins.The Commerce Department sampling survey,4 months before the 77.5% of the enterprise profit fell significantly in the contract,6.6% of companies said even affect the normal performance,73.4% of companies this year is expected to export profit can only be flat or falling.

　　三是中小企业出口经营难以为继。特别是劳动密集型出口企业主要依靠低成本优势赢得市场，产品附加值低，利润率普遍低于3%，加上竞争激烈，国外客户对价格相对敏感，所以人民币短期快速升值对其造成的冲击较大。

3 it is to small and medium-sized enterprises to export business is unsustainable.Especially the labor-intensive export enterprises mainly rely on low cost advantage to win the market,Low value-added products,Profit margin is generally lower than 3%,With fierce competition,Foreign customers relatively sensitive to price,So the short-term rapid renminbi appreciation on the impact of larger.

　　背景链接

Background link

　　据海关初步统计，2013年1~4月，全国进出口总额8.36万亿元人民币（折合13307.5亿美元），扣除汇率因素（下同）同比增长14%。其中，出口4.37万亿元人民币（折合6958.7亿美元），增长17.4%；进口3.99万亿元人民币（折合6348.8亿美元），增长10.6%；贸易顺差3834.6亿元人民币（折合609.9亿美元），增长2.25倍。

Preliminary statistics according to the customs,In 2013 January ~ April,The national import and export amount is 8.36 trillion yuan RMB(Us $1.33075 trillion),Excluding currency factors(The same below)Up 14% from a year earlier.Among them,Export is 4.37 trillion yuan RMB(Us $695.87 billion),Growth of 17.4%;Import is 3.99 trillion yuan RMB(Us $634.88 billion),Growth of 10.6%;Trade surplus of 383.46 billion RMB yuan(Us $60.99 billion),Increased 2.25 times.

　　1~4月外贸运行呈现以下特点：

1 ~ 4 month run foreign trade show the following characteristics:

　　一是对美国、东盟贸易平稳增长，对香港地区、南非增长较快。

One is to the United States/The association of southeast Asian nations (asean) steady growth of trade,To Hong Kong/South Africa is growing rapidly.

　　二是中西部地区出口继续快速增长，东部地区省市进出口有升有降。

The second is the Midwest exports continue to grow rapidly,Import and export mixed eastern provinces and cities.

　　三是一般贸易和加工贸易进出口均稳定增长。

Third, steady growth in both import and export of general trade and processing trade.

　　四是机电产品出口较快增长，传统劳动密集型产品出口增势明显。

Four is mechanical and electrical products export growth faster,Traditional labor-intensive products export growth is obvious.

　　五是大部分能源和资源性产品进口金额减少。

Five is to reduce imports most of the energy and resource products amount.